Dunkerque
vs
Quevilly
Coupe de France prediction & result
Final score: Dunkerque 0-3 Quevilly.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Dunkerque, 20% draw, 15% Quevilly — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Dunkerque 2.43, Quevilly 0.92.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Coupe de France predictions, then other matches
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Quevilly
Has the model earned this number?
Dunkerque at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Dunkerque vs Quevilly
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- W3-0Guingamp6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Rodez30 October 2026
- D1-1Metz23 October 2026
- W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
Quevilly
Ligue 3
- W2-0away to Villefranche7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Bastia31 October 2026
- W3-2Orleans17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cannes3 October 2026
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunkerque conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Quevilly conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Quevilly
- 3 May 2024Quevilly 1–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 30 September 2023Dunkerque 0–1 QuevillyLigue 2
- 14 May 2022Quevilly 3–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 24 July 2021Dunkerque 1–1 QuevillyLigue 2
- 31 July 2020Dunkerque 2–2 QuevillyFriendlies Clubs
- 10 January 2020Dunkerque 3–2 QuevillyLigue 3
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Quevilly
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev32
Quevilly
No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Quevilly won 3–0 at Dunkerque. The goals: D. Seck 10' for Quevilly, G. Capuano 72' for Quevilly, M. Jean-Marie 76' for Quevilly.
How the call on Dunkerque v Quevilly has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 62% / 21% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 65% / 20% / 15%: the biggest move is Dunkerque's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dunkerque win65%▲ +3
- Draw20%▼ −1
- Quevilly win15%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Dunkerque against 0.92 for Quevilly. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.13 for Quevilly.
How the model reaches 65% for Dunkerque to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunkerque to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Dunkerque's ratings add 10 points and Quevilly's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Dunkerque's ratings55%+10
- Quevilly's ratings65%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.