Slovenia
vs
Switzerland
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Slovenia, 29% draw, 47% Switzerland — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Slovenia 0.90, Switzerland 1.47.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Slovenia vs Switzerland
Has the model earned this number?
Switzerland at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovenia vs Switzerland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. OblakG
- 5S. KuzmićD
- 21V. DrkušićD
- 6J. BijolD
- 4Ž. ZaletelD
- 2Ž. KarničnikD
- 20A. MatkoM
- 22A. ČerinM
- 10M. ZabukovnikM
- 18Z. VipotnikF
- 15D. ŠturmF
- 23D. BrekaloD
- 11Ž. CelarF
- 19T. HorvatM
- 8S. LovrićM
- 17R. ObriÄD
- 3J. UrbančičD
- 16I. VekičG
- 7B. VerbičM
- 12M. VidovšekG
- 1G. KobelG
- 16Z. AthekameD
- 4N. ElvediD
- 5M. AkanjiD
- 2S. BritschgiD
- 8R. FreulerM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 11D. NdoyeM
- 22F. RiederM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 7B. EmboloF
- 3A. BajramiD
- 10Z. AmdouniF
- 9S. BalletF
- 18E. CömertD
- 19C. IttenF
- 14A. JashariM
- 21M. KellerG
- 12Y. MvogoG
- 13R. RodríguezD
Form going into Slovenia vs Switzerland
Slovenia
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Scotland6 October 2026
- L1-2away to Switzerland3 October 2026
- W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
- D0-0Scotland26 September 2026
Switzerland
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0North Macedonia6 October 2026
- W2-1Slovenia3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026
What these results say
- Slovenia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Switzerland won every one of these 4 matches.
- Switzerland scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Switzerland had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovenia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovenia vs Switzerland
- 3 October 2026Switzerland 2–1 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
- 13 October 2025Slovenia 0–0 SwitzerlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 8 September 2025Switzerland 3–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Slovenia and Switzerland
Slovenia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Switzerland
GoalsAssists
- Z. Amdouni31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slovenia and Switzerland drew 0–0. On expected goals it finished 0.35–0.57.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Slovenia against 1.47 for Switzerland. Slovenia's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.55/0.68 for Switzerland.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 47% for Switzerland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Switzerland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Slovenia's ratings add 6 points and Switzerland's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Slovenia's ratings39%+6
- Switzerland's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.