Netherlands
vs
Greece
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Netherlands 7-0 Greece.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Netherlands, 26% draw, 27% Greece — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Netherlands 1.72, Greece 1.16.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Netherlands vs Greece
Has the model earned this number?
Netherlands at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Netherlands vs Greece
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 22D. DumfriesD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 15M. van de VenD
- 12J. TimberD
- 8J. VeermanM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 21F. de JongM
- 10C. SummervilleF
- 18D. MalenF
- 11C. GakpoF
- 7J. KluivertF
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 20T. KoopmeinersM
- 17N. LangF
- 3I. MaatsenD
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 13R. RoefsG
- 16G. TilM
- 5Q. TimberM
- 12K. TzolakisG
- 15L. RotaD
- 4K. MavropanosD
- 5P. RetsosD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 23N. TriantisM
- 16T. AndroutsosM
- 10C. TzolisM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 8F. IoannidisF
- 17P. HatzidiakosD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 13C. MandasG
- 7G. MasourasF
- 18A. TettehF
- 2G. VagiannidisD
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 11A. BakasetasM
- 9T. DouvikasF
Form going into Netherlands vs Greece
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Serbia4 October 2026
- D2-2away to Greece1 October 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
- D1-1Germany24 September 2026
Greece
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Germany4 October 2026
- D2-2Netherlands1 October 2026
- W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026
What these results say
- Netherlands went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Netherlands scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Netherlands conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Greece went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Greece scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 11 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Greece
- 1 October 2026Greece 2–2 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
- 16 October 2023Greece 0–1 NetherlandsEuro Championship - Qualification
- 7 September 2023Netherlands 3–0 GreeceEuro Championship - Qualification
Leading scorers: Netherlands and Greece
Netherlands
GoalsAssists
- T. Reijnders41
Greece
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Netherlands beat Greece 7–0. The goals: Crysencio Summerville 6' for Netherlands, Tijjani Reijnders 12' for Netherlands, Tijjani Reijnders 18' for Netherlands, Tijjani Reijnders 33' for Netherlands, Jurriën Timber 40' for Netherlands, Jurriën Timber 59' for Netherlands, Donyell Malen 61' for Netherlands. On expected goals it finished 4.46–0.49.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Netherlands the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Netherlands against 1.16 for Greece. Netherlands's attack/defence rating is 1.38/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.92 for Greece.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 47% for Netherlands to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Netherlands to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Netherlands's ratings add 5 points and Greece's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Netherlands's ratings43%+5
- Greece's ratings47%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.