League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kosovo vs Israel UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina
Referee: Ivan Kruzliak
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Kosovo 0-0 Israel.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kosovo, 34% draw, 26% Israel — fair odds of 2.50, 2.94 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Kosovo 1.06, Israel 0.74.

Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Kosovo vs Israel

35%
Both teams to score
27%
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 17%1-0 17%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

Kosovo at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kosovo2%Draw94%Israel4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Veldin Hodza
20'
26'
Eli Dasa
62'
🔁Idan Toklomati Jornoout: Omri Gandelman
62'
🔁Eli Dasaout: Ilay Feingold
62'
Ilay Feingold
Veldin Hodza
66'
🔁Milot Rashicaout: Baton Zabergja
68'
🔁Vedat Muriqiout: Fisnik Asllani
68'
70'
🔁Ethane Azoulayout: Dor Turgeman
74'
Omri Gandelman
76'
🔁Idan Nachmiasout: Yarden Shua
🔁Edon Zhegrovaout: Dion Kacuri
82'
90+1'
Raz Shlomo

Match stats — Kosovo vs Israel

46%Possession54%
16Shots6
3On target3
7Corners2
1.18xG0.38

Goals against chances

Kosovo0 from 1.18 xGless than the chances were worth
Israel0 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kosovo 5-4-1
  • 16A. SaipiG
  • 15M. VojvodaD
  • 4I. KrasniqiD
  • 3K. HajriziD
  • 2L. KamberiD
  • 13D. GallapeniD
  • 10E. ZhegrovaM
  • 23L. AvdullahuM
  • 20V. HodžaM
  • 7M. RashicaM
  • 18V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 22M. AvdyliM
  • 11F. AsllaniF
  • 12V. BekajG
  • 21L. EmërllahuM
  • 8B. FazlijiM
  • 19D. KacuriM
  • 17B. KurtulusD
  • 1A. MurićG
  • 5R. RaciD
Coach: F. Foda
Israel 5-4-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 2E. DasaD
  • 5I. NachmiasD
  • 4R. ShlomoD
  • 13N. StoioanovD
  • 20L. AbadaD
  • 8Dor PeretzM
  • 17N. YehoshuaM
  • 19E. AzoulayM
  • 11O. GloukhM
  • 21I. Toklomati GiornoF
Substitutes
  • 22I. FeingoldD
  • 10Y. LeviM
  • 23A. TzurG
  • 9D. TurgemanF
  • 7Y. ShuaF
  • 3R. RevivoD
  • 14G. MizrahiD
  • 16G. KanichowskyM
  • 18O. GlazerG
Coach: R. Ben Shimon

Form going into Kosovo vs Israel

Kosovo

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Austria4 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Israel1 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria27 September 2026
  • W1-0Rep. Of Ireland24 September 2026

Israel

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Rep. Of Ireland4 October 2026
  • D0-0Kosovo1 October 2026
  • L0-3Rep. Of Ireland27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Austria24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Kosovo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kosovo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Kosovo had two goals or fewer.
  • Israel did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Israel conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Kosovo513134-16
4Israel503227-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kosovo vs Israel

  • 1 October 2026Israel 0–0 KosovoUEFA Nations League
  • 12 November 2023Kosovo 1–0 IsraelEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 25 March 2023Israel 1–1 KosovoEuro Championship - Qualification

The result against the call

Kosovo and Israel drew 0–0. Sent off: Veldin Hodza (Kosovo) 66'. On expected goals it finished 1.18–0.38.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Kosovo Israel
0.81 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
0.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.97
1.06 Model expected goals (this match) 0.74

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kosovo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kosovo against 0.74 for Israel. Kosovo's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.97 for Israel.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 40% for Kosovo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kosovo to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Kosovo's ratings add 2 points and Israel's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%−3
  4. Kosovo's ratings37%+2
  5. Israel's ratings40%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.