Norway
vs
Wales
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Norway 3-1 Wales.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Norway, 26% draw, 21% Wales — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Norway 1.82, Wales 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Norway vs Wales
Has the model earned this number?
Norway at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norway vs Wales
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13E. SelvikG
- 14J. RyersonD
- 3K. AjerD
- 17T. HeggemD
- 5D. Møller WolfeD
- 8S. BergeM
- 22Oscar BobbM
- 10M. ØdegaardM
- 19T. AasgaardM
- 20A. NusaM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 11E. BotheimF
- 6P. BergM
- 23E. HellandD
- 16M. PedersenD
- 18F. MyhreM
- 1Ø. NylandG
- 2O. BjørtuftD
- 21A. SchjelderupF
- 4L. ØstigårdD
- 1K. DarlowG
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 6J. RodonD
- 4B. DaviesD
- 15J. DasilvaD
- 20D. JamesM
- 5E. AmpaduM
- 10L. CullenM
- 11B. JohnsonM
- 8H. WilsonF
- 9L. KoumasF
- 19Cian AshfordF
- 7D. BrooksM
- 13A. CollinsF
- 17R. ColwillM
- 21Joseph DuncanG
- 18M. HarrisF
- 16J. LienouD
- 2C. MephamD
- 14C. RobertsD
Form going into Norway vs Wales
Norway
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Portugal4 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wales1 October 2026
- L1-2Portugal27 September 2026
- W3-2Denmark24 September 2026
Wales
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Denmark4 October 2026
- W2-1Norway1 October 2026
- L0-2away to Denmark27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Portugal24 September 2026
What these results say
- Norway scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Norway conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Norway had three goals or more.
- Wales conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wales failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wales failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Norway | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Wales | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norway vs Wales
- 1 October 2026Wales 2–1 NorwayUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Norway and Wales
Norway
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland41
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Norway beat Wales 3–1. The goals: Antonio Nusa 59' for Norway, Andreas Schjelderup 68' for Norway, David Brooks 79' for Wales, Erling Haaland (penalty) 88' for Norway. On expected goals it finished 2.61–1.05.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norway the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Norway against 0.95 for Wales. Norway's attack/defence rating is 1.53/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.88 for Wales.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 53% for Norway to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norway to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Norway's ratings add 9 points and Wales's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Norway's ratings47%+9
- Wales's ratings53%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.