Waalwijk
vs
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Waalwijk 4-0 Den Bosch.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Waalwijk, 26% draw, 21% Den Bosch — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Waalwijk 1.80, Den Bosch 0.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Model insights: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
Has the model earned this number?
Waalwijk at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 33F. Al MazyaniD
- 3S. van der PlasD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 55N. HeldD
- 18R. van HedelM
- 6L. PostmaM
- 10T. van LeeuwenM
- 17R. KuijpersF
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 11Yorem van der VeenF
- 42B. KemmerenD
- 93V. MisidjanF
- 24A. DkidakM
- 13Xander MulderG
- 8J. NapM
- 27F. StokkersF
- 31L. VogelsG
- 19H. van GemertF
- 22T. van de LooM
- 1P. van de MerbelG
- 4J. van HeertumD
- 25Silvan BrokerD
- 3S. MaasD
- 22Jeffry FortesM
- 18H. EikelboomM
- 10Devon DecorteM
- 27L. HoffmanM
- 35B. van SchuppenM
- 8K. MonzialoF
- 9S. Karlsson GrachF
- 31E. BijlsmaG
- 56Levi MoniharaponM
- 21F. MurreG
- 17E. SemedoF
- 7G. SilleF
- 16Wang BohaoM
- 19R. WoltersF
- 41K. de RooijD
- 11J. De VriesM
Form going into Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to FC OSS6 November 2026
- L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Jong Utrecht7 November 2026
- W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
What these results say
- Waalwijk did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Waalwijk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Den Bosch went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Den Bosch scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Den Bosch conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 | Den Bosch | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch
- 21 March 2026Waalwijk 2–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 3 October 2025Den Bosch 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 6 July 2024Waalwijk 2–3 Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
- 1 February 2019Waalwijk 2–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 24 August 2018Den Bosch 2–3 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 23 February 2018Den Bosch 0–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Den Bosch
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waalwijk a 0.1% chance of the title and Den Bosch 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Waalwijk a 48.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 53.6% after a win, 45.2% after a draw, 39.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.6%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
For Den Bosch the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 34.2% going in: 42.1% after a win, 35.4% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.4%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Waalwijk against 0.96 for Den Bosch. Waalwijk's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.78 for Den Bosch.
How the model reaches 53% for Waalwijk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Waalwijk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Waalwijk's ratings add 4 points and Den Bosch's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Waalwijk's ratings48%+4
- Den Bosch's ratings53%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.