Bristol Rovers
vs
Chesterfield
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Bristol Rovers 0-2 Chesterfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bristol Rovers, 27% draw, 42% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.31, Chesterfield 1.59.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Has the model earned this number?
Chesterfield at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Brad YoungG
- 2T. JamesD
- 4K. BalmerD
- 5A. KilgourD
- 14B. PurringtonD
- 8R. Russell-DennyM
- 22Keenan GoughM
- 6C. MolaM
- 24T. LeighM
- 29F. CavegnF
- 9J. QuigleyF
- 28A. AppiahF
- 7S. FordeF
- 19E. HarrisonF
- 10B. KamwaF
- 21R. SmallwoodM
- 27P. SanyaoluM
- 32Charlie BinnsG
- 1Z. HemmingG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 5K. McFadzeanD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 4T. NaylorM
- 8R. StirkM
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 18L. MarshM
- 37J. KoromaM
- 10L. BonisF
- 31J. RandallM
- 15A. PondD
- 46T. PearceD
- 20G. McEachranM
- 24D. MarkandayF
- 27K. DyerM
- 11D. DuffyM
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- L1-3away to Fleetwood Town31 October 2026
- D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
Chesterfield
League Two
- L1-4away to Newport County30 October 2026
- W5-1Crewe24 October 2026
- D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chesterfield scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield
- 7 February 2026Bristol Rovers 2–3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 16 August 2025Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 29 July 2023Bristol Rovers 2–0 ChesterfieldFriendlies Clubs
- 18 March 2017Bristol Rovers 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague One
- 26 November 2016Chesterfield 3–2 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 1 February 2014Chesterfield 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh61
- L. Bonis52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol Rovers a 0% chance of the title and Chesterfield 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bristol Rovers a 8.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.2% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 9.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.2%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Chesterfield the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 13.7% going in: 16.1% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.1%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bristol Rovers against 1.59 for Chesterfield. Bristol Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.98 for Chesterfield.
How the model reaches 42% for Chesterfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chesterfield to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Bristol Rovers's ratings add 4 points and Chesterfield's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Bristol Rovers's ratings36%+4
- Chesterfield's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.