Scotland
vs
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Scotland 2-1 North Macedonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Scotland, 27% draw, 20% North Macedonia — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Scotland 1.66, North Macedonia 0.83.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Scotland vs North Macedonia
Has the model earned this number?
Scotland at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Scotland vs North Macedonia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. GunnG
- 5R. PorteousD
- 18L. GrahamD
- 6K. TierneyD
- 17B. DoakM
- 19L. FergusonM
- 8B. GilmourM
- 3A. RobertsonM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10C. AdamsF
- 4S. McTominayF
- 23Kristi MontgomeryM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 22N. PattersonD
- 20K. BowieF
- 12L. KellyG
- 21S. BainG
- 11R. ChristieM
- 16Findlay CurtisF
- 13J. HendryD
- 23S. DimitrievskiG
- 2Bojan IlievskiD
- 4M. MladenovskiD
- 6V. MusliuD
- 8E. AlioskiD
- 15M. GashtarovM
- 7E. ElmasM
- 11D. ChurlinovM
- 10E. BardhiM
- 14L. DorievM
- 9E. RastoderF
- 1D. TaleskiG
- 5Imran FetaiD
- 19M. GjorgjievskiF
- 3S. HerreraD
- 22H. MaleskiF
- 16B. NikolovM
- 17A. OmeragikjF
- 12D. ShishkovskiG
- 20L. StankovskiM
Form going into Scotland vs North Macedonia
Scotland
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Slovenia6 October 2026
- W2-0away to North Macedonia3 October 2026
- L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-3away to Switzerland6 October 2026
- L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
What these results say
- Scotland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- North Macedonia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Scotland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Scotland vs North Macedonia
- 3 October 2026North Macedonia 0–2 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Scotland beat North Macedonia 2–1. The goals: John McGinn 54' for Scotland, Elmin Rastoder 57' for North Macedonia, John McGinn (penalty) 74' for Scotland. On expected goals it finished 3.66–0.31.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Scotland the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Scotland against 0.83 for North Macedonia. Scotland's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.24 for North Macedonia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 53% for Scotland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Scotland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Scotland's ratings add 8 points and North Macedonia's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Scotland's ratings45%+8
- North Macedonia's ratings53%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.