League C - 5 · 12 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Armenia vs Cyprus UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Referee: Orel Grinfeld
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Armenia 1-1 Cyprus.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Armenia, 32% draw, 35% Cyprus — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Armenia 1.01, Cyprus 1.07.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

More Nations League predictions

All Nations League predictions →

Model insights: Armenia vs Cyprus

42%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-0 13%0-1 13%

Has the model earned this number?

Cyprus at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Armenia3%Draw94%Cyprus3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Iasonas Pikisassist: Ioannis Pittas
44'
Loizos Loizou
50'
Iasonas Pikis
⚽Artur Gharibyanassist: Artur Serobyan
58'
Georgiy Harutyunyan
60'
63'
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: Giannis Kosti
Narek Grigoryan
72'
🔁Narek Grigoryanout: Edgar Sevikyan
72'
🔁Artur Serobyanout: Gor Manvelyan
77'
🔁Artur Gharibyanout: Grant Leon Ranos
77'
77'
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Stavros Georgiou
Edgar Sevikyan
81'
🔁Ugochukwu Iwuout: Hovhannes Harutyunyan
86'
🔁Zhirayr Shaghoyanout: narek hovhannisyan
86'
90+3'
🔁Grigoris Kastanosout: Kostakis Artymatas
90+3'
🔁Iasonas Pikisout: A. Neophytou

Match stats — Armenia vs Cyprus

69%Possession31%
26Shots10
7On target2
11Corners4
1.74xG2.1

Goals against chances

Armenia1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Cyprus1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Armenia 4-2-3-1
  • 16A. MishievG
  • 2A. BandikyanD
  • 4G. HarutyunyanD
  • 5S. MkrtchyanD
  • 21N. TiknizyanD
  • 8K. HovhannisyanM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 9A. SerobyanM
  • 22N. GrigoryanM
  • 10Z. ShaghoyanM
  • 18A. GharibyanF
Substitutes
  • 11H. HarutyunyanM
  • 19E. GrigoryanD
  • 20K. MuradyanM
  • 15A. PetrosyanD
  • 3E. PiloyanD
  • 23N. HovhannisyanF
  • 17G. RanosF
  • 7E. SevikyanM
  • 14G. ManvelyanM
Coach: E. Melikyan
Cyprus 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabianoG
  • 15L. KonomisD
  • 4H. KyprianouD
  • 19K. LaifisD
  • 14G. MalekkidesD
  • 16P. AndreouM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 10L. LoizouM
  • 23M. EdwardsM
  • 9I. PittasM
  • 11I. PikisF
Substitutes
  • 18K. ArtymatasM
  • 17S. GeorgiouF
  • 13I. KostiM
  • 8C. KyriakouM
  • 12J. MallG
  • 7A. NeophytouF
  • 3N. PanagiotouD
  • 22A. ParaskevasG
  • 21M. TzionisF
Coach: A. Mantzios

Form going into Armenia vs Cyprus

Armenia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Montenegro5 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Cyprus2 October 2026
  • L2-3Montenegro28 September 2026
  • W2-0Latvia25 September 2026

Cyprus

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1Latvia5 October 2026
  • W2-0Armenia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Armenia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Armenia had two goals or fewer.
  • Cyprus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Armenia512256-15
2Cyprus522164+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Armenia vs Cyprus

  • 2 October 2026Cyprus 2–0 ArmeniaUEFA Nations League
  • 28 March 2023Armenia 2–2 CyprusFriendlies
  • 13 November 2017Armenia 3–2 CyprusFriendlies

The result against the call

Armenia and Cyprus drew 1–1. The goals: Iasonas Pikis 9' for Cyprus, Artur Gharibyan 58' for Armenia. On expected goals it finished 1.74–2.10.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Armenia Cyprus
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71
1.2 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.08
1.01 Model expected goals (this match) 1.07

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cyprus the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Armenia against 1.07 for Cyprus. Armenia's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.08 for Cyprus.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 35% for Cyprus to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cyprus to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Armenia's ratings add 2 points and Cyprus's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. Armenia's ratings34%+2
  5. Cyprus's ratings35%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.