Colchester
vs
Gillingham
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Colchester 2-0 Gillingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Colchester, 28% draw, 28% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Colchester 1.51, Gillingham 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Colchester vs Gillingham
Has the model earned this number?
Colchester at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colchester vs Gillingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22T. Lo-TutalaG
- 30K. Vincent-YoungD
- 5J. TuckerD
- 20S. RaggettD
- 3E. IandoloD
- 26J. WilliamsM
- 8E. BishopM
- 12M. SesayM
- 10J. PayneM
- 7H. AndersonM
- 17Jaden WilliamsF
- 23Adrian Moyosoreoluwa Ameer AkandeF
- 6P. DigbyM
- 31Oscar RobertsG
- 39K. ConnellyF
- 44S. KuffourD
- 4Ben PerryM
- 27O. ThornF
- 1O. WrightG
- 6E. ColemanD
- 19O. BecklesD
- 26L. DobbsD
- 22N. FreemanM
- 24H. WaldockM
- 15Z. AlbarusM
- 16J. BrophyM
- 18S. KendallF
- 11L. SillahF
- 12G. McClearyF
- 5A. SmithD
- 8A. LittleM
- 17C. AntwiM
- 32L. DayalM
- 20J. DaleyD
- 10Ronan HaleF
- 40R. LuthraG
Form going into Colchester vs Gillingham
Colchester
League Two
- L1-3Walsall31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Northampton24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chesterfield20 October 2026
- D0-0Exeter City17 October 2026
Gillingham
League Two
- W2-1away to Shrewsbury31 October 2026
- L1-4Grimsby24 October 2026
- D1-1Port Vale20 October 2026
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
What these results say
- Colchester did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Colchester conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Colchester had two goals or fewer.
- Gillingham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gillingham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Gillingham.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colchester vs Gillingham
- 29 December 2025Gillingham 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 6 December 2025Colchester 0–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 7 October 2025Colchester 2–1 GillinghamEFL Trophy
- 1 April 2025Gillingham 1–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 26 December 2024Colchester 2–0 GillinghamLeague Two
- 1 January 2024Colchester 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Colchester and Gillingham
Colchester
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gillingham (12th, with Colchester 21st), while our numbers lean to Colchester. Colchester rate 0.43 in attack and 1.95 in defence, Gillingham 0.46 and 2.39 (lower is better in defence), so Colchester have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Colchester a 0% chance of the title and Gillingham 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colchester a 13.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 10.1% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.1%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Colchester the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Colchester against 1.09 for Gillingham. Colchester's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.39 for Gillingham.
How the model reaches 44% for Colchester to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Colchester to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Colchester's ratings add 2 points and Gillingham's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Colchester's ratings42%+2
- Gillingham's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.