Weekend preview, 14-15 November: Finland the surest call of 87 matches
Our model has a prediction for 87 matches this weekend (14-15 November), across 15 competitions. It is surest about Finland: 77% to beat San Marino, most likely 2-0. 11 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 19:45 UTC): 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1.
- Spain vs England (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 19:45 UTC): 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1.
- Portugal vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League, Saturday 19:45 UTC): 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0.
- France vs Türkiye (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 19:45 UTC): 61% / 21% / 18%, most likely 2-1.
- Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland (UEFA Nations League, Saturday 19:45 UTC): 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0.
The surest calls
- Finland vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League): Finland at 77%, most likely 2-0.
- Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca (Primera División): Alianza Lima at 69%, most likely 2-0.
- Dunkerque vs Quevilly (Coupe de France): Dunkerque at 65%, most likely 2-0.
- Livingston vs Morton (Championship): Livingston at 64%, most likely 2-1.
- Dordrecht vs Heracles (Eerste Divisie): Heracles at 63%, most likely 0-2.
For scale: calls the model rated at 60% or more have landed 68% of the time, across 828 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
National-team predictions are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking and not yet calibrated against our own record, so read those as the weakest numbers on this list.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Belgium vs Italy (UEFA Nations League): 35% / 29% / 36%.
- Northern Ireland vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League): 35% / 33% / 32%.
- Oviedo vs Girona (Segunda División): 36% / 28% / 36%.
- Eldense vs Sabadell (Segunda División): 34% / 33% / 33%.
- Club Queretaro vs Monterrey (Liga MX): 38% / 27% / 35%.
And 6 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.