Oviedo
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 1-2 Girona.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Oviedo, 28% draw, 39% Girona — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Oviedo 1.29, Girona 1.43.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Oviedo vs Girona
Has the model earned this number?
Girona at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Girona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 21David JiménezD
- 4David CostasD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 5Y. DidiM
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 7I. ChairaM
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 17EstanisM
- 24A. IșfanF
- 14Carlos FernándezF
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 18V. MingoF
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 28D. MenendezM
- 25José Luis MoralesF
- 20Pablo SáenzF
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 6Dani VillahermosaM
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 3Mateu MoreyD
- 5David LópezD
- 16Alejandro FrancésD
- 11Álex MorenoD
- 8Fran BeltránM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 23Carles PérezM
- 9Abel RuizM
- 30Unai HernándezM
- 15Oleksandr PishchurF
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 39Guillem BadiaD
- 40Alex Cantarell RullF
- 28Gibert JordanaD
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 14Iván MoranteM
- 2A. MuminD
- 10PortuF
- 1Sergi PuigG
Form going into Oviedo vs Girona
Oviedo
Segunda División
- W2-1away to Cadiz7 November 2026
- L2-3Las Palmas2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
Girona
Segunda División
- L0-1Almeria8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Real Sociedad II31 October 2026
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Oviedo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
- Girona conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Girona had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 21 |
| 3 | Girona | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Girona
- 31 January 2026Oviedo 1–0 GironaLa Liga
- 25 October 2025Girona 3–3 OviedoLa Liga
- 6 March 2022Girona 2–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 26 September 2021Oviedo 0–0 GironaSegunda División
- 25 April 2021Oviedo 0–1 GironaSegunda División
- 18 October 2020Girona 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Girona
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez50
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oviedo a 0.3% chance of the title and Girona 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Girona a 14.9% chance to finish in the top two: 18.2% after a win, 13.4% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Oviedo against 1.43 for Girona. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.05 for Girona.
How the model reaches 39% for Girona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Girona to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Oviedo's ratings add 5 points and Girona's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Oviedo's ratings35%+5
- Girona's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.