Dordrecht
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Dordrecht 1-2 Heracles.
Before kick-off the model made it 16% Dordrecht, 22% draw, 62% Heracles — fair odds of 6.25, 4.55 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Dordrecht 0.89, Heracles 2.21.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Model insights: Dordrecht vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
Heracles at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dordrecht vs Heracles
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28T. CoremansG
- 22J. van AkenD
- 15Y. M'BembaD
- 44B. HardleyD
- 3S. HenderikxD
- 5C. MpanzuD
- 21M. VetkalM
- 2A. LechkarM
- 8Senne VugtsM
- 11N. RossiM
- 9J. de BieF
- 17Y. YounousM
- 12Guus HuitzingM
- 13Dean HogervorstG
- 27Ilias AzaouaghF
- 19Mohammed Jumaa
- 1Finn OldenstamG
- 16L. RománF
- 77Artur Skoczen
- 1F. de KeijzerG
- 15David VicenteD
- 4D. MiraniD
- 14M. WruschD
- 25MannyD
- 11J. Reine-AdélaïdeM
- 32S. SchepermanM
- 7C. AbbasM
- 10T. BrunsM
- 18M. HauswirthM
- 27J. N'djoliF
- 35S. BultmanD
- 80F. FofanaF
- 22Tarik HamamiogluF
- 16T. JansinkG
- 2M. BenitaD
- 9V. PopplerF
- 6D. TomićM
- 38J. WijnrederD
- 33L. ZeevalkinkG
Form going into Dordrecht vs Heracles
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie
- D0-0NAC Breda6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Jong Utrecht2 November 2026
- L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
Heracles
Eerste Divisie
- W5-1Roda6 November 2026
- W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
- D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
What these results say
- Dordrecht failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dordrecht scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Heracles went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Heracles scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Heracles won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dordrecht | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 12 |
| 1 | Heracles | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 16 | +30 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs Heracles
- 5 May 2023Dordrecht 1–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 16 December 2022Heracles 8–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 18 December 2019Heracles 3–0 DordrechtKNVB Beker
- 4 April 2015Dordrecht 2–3 HeraclesEredivisie
- 12 December 2014Heracles 1–1 DordrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and Heracles
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli143
- T. van Gilst112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and Heracles 91.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dordrecht a 64.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 51.0% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 66.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.7%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For Heracles the question was the chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season, 89.5% going in: 91.3% after a win, 86.4% after a draw, 84.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.3%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Dordrecht against 2.21 for Heracles. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.22 for Heracles.
How the model reaches 62% for Heracles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Dordrecht's ratings add 15 points and Heracles's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Dordrecht's ratings44%+15
- Heracles's ratings62%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.