Northern Ireland
vs
Ukraine
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Northern Ireland 1-0 Ukraine.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Northern Ireland, 33% draw, 32% Ukraine — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Northern Ireland 0.96, Ukraine 0.91.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Has the model earned this number?
Northern Ireland at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2T. DevlinD
- 4Tom AtchesonD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 22C. BrownD
- 3J. DevennyD
- 7E. GalbraithM
- 5T. HumeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 14I. PriceM
- 10J. DonleyF
- 13B. GrahamF
- 18M. ForbesD
- 12C. HazardG
- 16Patrick KellyM
- 21J. MagennisF
- 8C. MarshallF
- 17P. McNairD
- 9K. MorrisonM
- 11P. SmythF
- 12A. TrubinG
- 13I. ZabarnyiD
- 3E. SarapiyD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 7O. KashchukM
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 18O. OcheretkoM
- 8H. SudakovM
- 14D. SikanF
- 9R. YaremchukF
- 21I. KrasnopirF
- 5I. KrupskyiD
- 2B. KrushynskyiD
- 4T. MykhavkoD
- 19E. NazarynaM
- 23D. RiznykG
- 17V. VanatF
- 15I. VarfolomeevM
- 1H. ErmakovG
Form going into Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Northern Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Georgia5 October 2026
- W3-0away to Ukraine2 October 2026
- D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026
Ukraine
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Hungary5 October 2026
- L0-3Northern Ireland2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026
What these results say
- Northern Ireland went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Northern Ireland kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Northern Ireland had two goals or fewer.
- Ukraine failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
- 2 October 2026Ukraine 0–3 Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League
- 3 June 2021Ukraine 1–0 Northern IrelandFriendlies
- 16 June 2016Ukraine 0–2 Northern IrelandEuro Championship
The result against the call
Northern Ireland beat Ukraine 1–0. The goal: Terry Devlin 68' for Northern Ireland. On expected goals it finished 1.68–0.81.
How the call on Northern Ireland v Ukraine has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 33% / 33% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 33% / 32%: the biggest move is Northern Ireland's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Northern Ireland win35%▲ +2
- Draw33%=
- Ukraine win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Northern Ireland the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Northern Ireland against 0.91 for Ukraine. Northern Ireland's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.81 for Ukraine.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 35% for Northern Ireland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Northern Ireland to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Northern Ireland's ratings take away 1 point and Ukraine's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level35%−3
- Northern Ireland's ratings34%−1
- Ukraine's ratings35%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.