Mallorca
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 3-3 Cordoba.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Mallorca, 26% draw, 23% Cordoba — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mallorca 1.85, Cordoba 1.07.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Mallorca vs Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
Mallorca at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs Cordoba
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 6Antonio SánchezD
- 21RaílloD
- 22A. SouhmahoroD
- 5Alberto MorenoD
- 17Arnau PuigmalM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 10DarderM
- 33Adrian LisoM
- 18FuentesF
- 20Pablo TorreF
- 39J. GarciaM
- 37Toni DolsG
- 25Iván CuéllarG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 16A. BuksaF
- 30J. KalumbaF
- 3Toni LatoD
- 14D. LunaM
- 29L. OrejuelaD
- 13Guilherme FernandesG
- 30Daniel BudescaD
- 5Juan GutiérrezD
- 16Rubén AlvesD
- 3Dani TasendeD
- 28Eder GarcíaM
- 8Isma RuizM
- 11Diego BriM
- 14Adnane GhailanM
- 24S. El JebariM
- 9PercanF
- 26Alejandro Arévalo ArrebolaG
- 6D. CaceresM
- 20Nélson MonteD
- 4Álex MartínD
- 27Egoitz MuñozD
- 18Enol RodríguezF
- 19Ibai SanzF
- 15V. SanchezF
- 7T. ZidaneM
Form going into Mallorca vs Cordoba
Mallorca
Segunda División
- W2-1Cadiz2 November 2026
- D1-1away to Leganes24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
- W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026
Cordoba
Segunda División
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Celta de Vigo II31 October 2026
- W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
What these results say
- Mallorca went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Mallorca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mallorca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cordoba went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Cordoba scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cordoba won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 10 | Cordoba | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Cordoba
- 31 March 2019Cordoba 3–2 MallorcaSegunda División
- 11 November 2018Mallorca 3–0 CordobaSegunda División
- 23 April 2017Mallorca 1–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 11 November 2016Cordoba 0–2 MallorcaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Cordoba
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan63
- Eder García42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mallorca a 3% chance of the title and Cordoba 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mallorca a 17.0% chance to finish in the top two: 18.9% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 10.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.1%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For Cordoba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 6.8% going in: 3.8% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.1%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Mallorca against 1.07 for Cordoba. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.66 for Cordoba.
How the model reaches 51% for Mallorca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mallorca to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Mallorca's ratings add 2 points and Cordoba's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Mallorca's ratings45%+2
- Cordoba's ratings51%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.