Real Sociedad II
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad II 2-2 Sporting Gijon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Real Sociedad II, 28% draw, 32% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.51, Sporting Gijon 1.30.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad II at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Lander OlasagastiG
- 2Jon GarroD
- 4Luken BeitiaD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 7Dani DíazM
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 11Alex GarciaM
- 19Javier SoroetaF
- 18Gorka CarreraF
- 24A. UnaxD
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 1Aitor FragaG
- 16Gorka GorosabelM
- 12J. OleagaM
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 29Iker RoperoD
- 22RupérezD
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 2Guille RosasD
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 7Gaspar CamposM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 6Nacho MartínM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 28M. CondeF
- 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezF
- 13AranaG
- 9A. FerrariF
- 22Hugo GuillamónM
- 35C. FerreresM
- 4E. GularteD
- 21M. LoumM
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 36B. RubioM
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- D0-0away to Sabadell9 November 2026
- W1-0Girona31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- L1-2Valladolid8 November 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC1 November 2026
- L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Sociedad II had two goals or fewer.
- Sporting Gijon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sporting Gijon had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon
- 6 April 2026Sporting Gijon 1–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 6 December 2025Real Sociedad II 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 7 March 2022Real Sociedad II 2–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 12 November 2021Sporting Gijon 0–1 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 28 July 2021Sporting Gijon 0–2 Real Sociedad IIFriendlies Clubs
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sporting Gijon (8th, with Real Sociedad II 18th), while our numbers lean to Real Sociedad II. Real Sociedad II rate 0.72 in attack and 1.56 in defence, Sporting Gijon 0.69 and 1.35 (lower is better in defence), so Real Sociedad II have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 10-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Sociedad II a 0% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad II a 22.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 16.8% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.0%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Sociedad II v Sporting Gijon has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Real Sociedad II win40%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Sporting Gijon win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad II the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.30 for Sporting Gijon. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.35 for Sporting Gijon.
How the model reaches 40% for Real Sociedad II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad II to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Real Sociedad II's ratings take away 1 point and Sporting Gijon's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Real Sociedad II's ratings42%−1
- Sporting Gijon's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.