League D - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Andorra vs Gibraltar UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Estadi de la FAF, Andorra
Referee: Robert Hennessy
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Andorra 2-0 Gibraltar.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Andorra, 32% draw, 43% Gibraltar — fair odds of 4.00, 3.13 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).

Expected goals: Andorra 0.78, Gibraltar 1.19.

Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Andorra vs Gibraltar

38%
Both teams to score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-1 16%0-0 15%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

Gibraltar at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Andorra99%Draw1%Gibraltar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Tjay De Barr
⚽Guillaume Lopezassist: Albert Rosas Ubach
24'
33'
🔁Ethan Jolleyout: Louie Annesley
⚽Albert Rosas Ubach
35'
45'
🔁Dylan Borgeout: Han Stevens
45'
🔁Nicholas Pozoout: Leon Mason
Eric·Izquierdo
54'
55'
Carlos Richards
56'
Julian Valarino
58'
Louie Annesley
64'
⚽Tjay De Barr (pen)
🔁Eric·Izquierdoout: Joel Guillén
64'
🔁Albert Rosas Ubachout: Gerard Garcia
65'
🔁Guillaume Lopezout: Hugo Ferreira Da Silva
73'
🔁Nil Linaresout: Jordi Aláez
73'
Jordi Aláez
77'
78'
🔁Julian Valarinoout: Ethan Britto
78'
🔁Kian Ronanout: Liam Jessop
79'
D. Bent
🔁Ian Oliveraout: Kiko Pomares
82'

Match stats — Andorra vs Gibraltar

52%Possession48%
8Shots8
3On target1
3Corners2
1.11xG0.98

Goals against chances

Andorra2 from 1.11 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gibraltar0 from 0.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Andorra 4-4-2
  • 12Iker ÁlvarezG
  • 23Biel BorraD
  • 5Max LloveraD
  • 22Ian OliveraD
  • 15Moisés San NicolásD
  • 7Nil LinaresM
  • 18Ot PlanesM
  • 16Éric De Las Heras IzquierdoM
  • 17Aron RodrigoM
  • 10G. LópezF
  • 11Albert RosasF
Substitutes
  • 4Christian GarcíaD
  • 21M. GarciaM
  • 19Joel GuillénD
  • 14Jordi AláezM
  • 6Kiko PomaresD
  • 3Eric ValesM
  • 1M. De CastroG
  • 20Gerard GarciaF
  • 13Á. RuízG
Coach: Koldo
Gibraltar 4-2-3-1
  • 23J. HankinsG
  • 2E. JolleyD
  • 5D. BentD
  • 6B. LopesD
  • 3J. ValarinoD
  • 8K. RonanM
  • 4N. PozoM
  • 7Carlos Peliza RichardsM
  • 10T. De BarrM
  • 11J. ScanlonM
  • 9D. BorgeF
Substitutes
  • 13Harry VictorG
  • 1B. BandaG
  • 16H. StevensM
  • 18J. GarroD
  • 15J. GomezM
  • 17L. JessopF
  • 19L. MasonF
  • 22Luke SchofieldM
  • 14J. Del RioM
Coach: S. Wiseman

Form going into Andorra vs Gibraltar

Andorra

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1away to Malta4 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Gibraltar27 September 2026
  • L1-2Malta24 September 2026

Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1away to Malta1 October 2026
  • D0-0Andorra27 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Andorra41123304
3Gibraltar302113-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Andorra vs Gibraltar

  • 27 September 2026Gibraltar 0–0 AndorraUEFA Nations League
  • 4 September 2024Gibraltar 1–0 AndorraFriendlies
  • 19 November 2022Gibraltar 1–0 AndorraFriendlies
  • 7 June 2021Andorra 0–0 GibraltarFriendlies

The full Andorra vs Gibraltar record →

The result against the call

Andorra beat Gibraltar 2–0. The goals: Guillaume Lopez 24' for Andorra, Albert Rosas Ubach 35' for Andorra. On expected goals it finished 1.11–0.98.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Andorra Gibraltar
0.45 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.29
0.78 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gibraltar the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Andorra against 1.19 for Gibraltar. Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.29 for Gibraltar.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 43% for Gibraltar to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gibraltar to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Andorra's ratings add 5 points and Gibraltar's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%−2
  4. Andorra's ratings37%+5
  5. Gibraltar's ratings43%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.