League C - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Luxembourg vs Estonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Referee: Ishmael Barbara
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Luxembourg 0-1 Estonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Luxembourg, 36% draw, 36% Estonia — fair odds of 3.57, 2.78 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (21%).

Expected goals: Luxembourg 0.73, Estonia 0.87.

Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Luxembourg vs Estonia

31%
Both teams to score
22%
Over 2.5 goals
78%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 21%0-1 17%1-0 14%

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Luxembourg0%Draw2%Estonia98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

42'
⚽Maksim Paskotsiassist: Rocco Robert Shein
🔁Sebastien Thillout: Enzo dos Santos
58'
🔁Aiman Dardariout: Omar Natami
58'
🔁Tim Hallout: Enes Mahmutovic
58'
Omar Natami
61'
69'
🔁Mattias Männilaanout: M Paalberg
78'
🔁Rocco Robert Sheinout: karel mustmaa
🔁Vincent Thillout: jayson videira
79'
🔁Florian Bohnertout: Patrick Macedo Batista
79'
jayson videira
80'
Laurent Jans
90+5'

Match stats — Luxembourg vs Estonia

54%Possession46%
8Shots10
3On target5
2Corners2
0.68xG0.78

Goals against chances

Luxembourg0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Estonia1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Luxembourg 4-4-2
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 18L. JansD
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 22T. HallD
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 17H. KadamaniM
  • 21S. ThillF
  • 7Aiman DardariF
Substitutes
  • 2E. DžogovićD
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
  • 23L. FoxG
  • 13F. IkeneM
  • 3E. MahmutovićD
  • 15Omar NatamiF
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 10T. RupilM
  • 14E. VeigaD
Coach: J. Strasser
Estonia 5-3-2
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 6R. PeetsonD
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 16E. TõugjasD
  • 18K. MetsD
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 5R. SheinM
  • 7M. MännilaanF
  • 14P. KristalF
Substitutes
  • 12M. IgonenG
  • 22K. VallnerG
  • 20T. TammikD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
  • 13J. SalisteD
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
  • 17M. MillerM
  • 23F. LiivakM
  • 21V. KreidaM
Coach: J. Henn

Form going into Luxembourg vs Estonia

Luxembourg

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2Bulgaria6 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Estonia3 October 2026
  • L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026

Estonia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Iceland6 October 2026
  • W1-0Luxembourg3 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Luxembourg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Luxembourg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Luxembourg failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Estonia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Estonia had two goals or fewer.
  • Estonia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Luxembourg510428-63
2Estonia523031+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Estonia

  • 3 October 2026Estonia 1–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Estonia won 1–0 at Luxembourg. The goal: Maksim Paskotsi 42' for Estonia. On expected goals it finished 0.68–0.78.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Luxembourg Estonia
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
1.18 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.88
0.73 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Estonia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Luxembourg against 0.87 for Estonia. Luxembourg's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/0.88 for Estonia.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 36% for Estonia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estonia to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Luxembourg's ratings add 3 points and Estonia's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%−3
  4. Luxembourg's ratings34%+3
  5. Estonia's ratings36%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.