League C - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Bulgaria vs Iceland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv
Referee: Florian Badstubner
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Bulgaria 0-5 Iceland.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Bulgaria, 25% draw, 57% Iceland — fair odds of 5.56, 4.00 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).

Expected goals: Bulgaria 0.79, Iceland 1.86.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Bulgaria vs Iceland

47%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-1 13%0-2 12%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

Iceland at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
🔁Stefán Teitur Thórdarsonout: Hörður Magnússon
17'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsen (pen)
21'
⚽Orri Steinn Óskarssonassist: Hörður Magnússon
29'
🔁Kristall Mani Ingasonout: Arnór Sigurðsson
39'
Hörður Magnússon
Kristiyan Balov
45+4'
45'
🔁Orri Steinn Óskarssonout: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
🔁Kristiyan Balovout: Marin Plamenov·Petkov
45'
52'
⚽Emil Tsenov (OG)
Andrian Kraev
55'
🔁Georgi Rusevout: Ivajlo Čočev
62'
🔁Atanas Ilievout: Georgi Antoanov Lazarov
63'
66'
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
68'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
71'
🔁Ísak Bergmann Jóhannessonout: Gylfi Sigurðsson
72'
🔁Daniel Leo Gretarssonout: Aron Gunnarsson
79'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsen
🔁Ilia Gruevout: Ivano Pankov
85'
🔁Lukas Petkovout: Dimitar Velkovski
85'

Match stats — Bulgaria vs Iceland

52%Possession48%
9Shots16
2On target7
4Corners1
1.01xG2.95

Goals against chances

Bulgaria0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth
Iceland5 from 2.95 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bulgaria 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. NaumovG
  • 22Y. StoyanovD
  • 13S. VelkovD
  • 3E. TsenovD
  • 6H. PetrovD
  • 8A. KraevM
  • 4I. GruevM
  • 20L. PetkovM
  • 11G. RusevM
  • 7K. BalovM
  • 9A. IlievF
Substitutes
  • 16M. PetkovF
  • 12A. BozhevG
  • 15Georgi Antoanov LazarovF
  • 5I. PankovM
  • 19I. TuritsovD
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 2R. BozhinovD
  • 23P. AndreevG
  • 10A. ChandarovM
Coach: A. Ribarski
Iceland 4-4-2
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 4V. PálssonD
  • 16S. ÞórðarsonD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 2L. TómassonD
  • 19M. EllertssonM
  • 7H. HaraldssonM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 15K. IngasonM
  • 22A. GuðjohnsenF
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 17A. GunnarssonM
  • 6Þ. HelgasonM
  • 20K. HlynssonM
  • 23H. MagnússonD
  • 1R. RúnarssonG
  • 21A. SigurðssonM
  • 10G. SigurðssonM
  • 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
  • 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson

Form going into Bulgaria vs Iceland

Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0away to Luxembourg6 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
  • D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

Iceland

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Estonia6 October 2026
  • W3-0Bulgaria3 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
  • D1-1Estonia26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bulgaria failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Iceland went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Iceland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Iceland kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Bulgaria5113310-74
1Iceland5320121+1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bulgaria vs Iceland

  • 3 October 2026Iceland 3–0 BulgariaUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Bulgaria and Iceland

Bulgaria

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Iceland

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen51
  • O. Óskarsson42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Iceland won 5–0 at Bulgaria. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen (penalty) 17' for Iceland, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 21' for Iceland, Emil Tsenov (own goal) 52' for Iceland, Andri Guðjohnsen 68' for Iceland, Andri Guðjohnsen 79' for Iceland. On expected goals it finished 1.01–2.95.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bulgaria Iceland
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.06
1.4 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.84
0.79 Model expected goals (this match) 1.86

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Iceland the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Bulgaria against 1.86 for Iceland. Bulgaria's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.84 for Iceland.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 57% for Iceland to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Iceland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bulgaria's ratings add 12 points and Iceland's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 57%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level33%−1
  4. Bulgaria's ratings45%+12
  5. Iceland's ratings57%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.