League D - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Referee: Kristo Tohver
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Liechtenstein 0-1 Azerbaijan.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% Liechtenstein, 33% draw, 49% Azerbaijan — fair odds of 5.56, 3.03 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (20%).

Expected goals: Liechtenstein 0.54, Azerbaijan 1.20.

Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

30%
Both teams to score
25%
Over 2.5 goals
75%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-1 20%0-0 18%0-2 13%

Has the model earned this number?

Azerbaijan at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Liechtenstein0%Draw2%Azerbaijan98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Mahir Emreli
Emanuel Zünd
43'
Marcel Büchel
47'
🔁Fabio Luque Notaroout: Bruno Poitner
62'
62'
🔁Oruc Məmmədovout: Rufat Abdullazada
🔁Alessandro Lo Russoout: Liam Kranz
73'
🔁Alessio Haslerout: F. Saglam
74'
🔁Marcel Büchelout: Andrin·Netzer
88'
🔁S. Schlegelout: Andreas Malin
88'
89'
🔁Tural Bayramovout: K. Aliyev
90+2'
Emil Balayev
90+5'
🔁Rufat Abbasovout: Tellur Mutallimov

Match stats — Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

35%Possession65%
5Shots29
0On target11
1Corners9
0.36xG1.81

Goals against chances

Liechtenstein0 from 0.36 xGabout what the chances were worth
Azerbaijan1 from 1.81 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Liechtenstein 3-5-2
  • 1B. BüchelG
  • 14L. MeierD
  • 23J. HoferD
  • 5S. SchlegelD
  • 19E. ZündM
  • 8A. SeleM
  • 10M. BuchelM
  • 20A. HaslerM
  • 3M. GoppelM
  • 7Fabio Luque NotaroF
  • 11Alessandro Lo RussoF
Substitutes
  • 2N. BeckD
  • 17L. KranzM
  • 6A. MalinD
  • 18Manuel MikusD
  • 15A. NetzerD
  • 12J. OspeltG
  • 4Philipp OspeltM
  • 16Bruno PoitnerM
  • 9F. SaglamF
Coach: K. Fünfstück
Azerbaijan 5-4-1
  • 1E. BalayevG
  • 21Q. AlıyevD
  • 4R. MəmmədovD
  • 15B. HüseynovD
  • 2R. DaşdəmirovD
  • 3R. AbbasovD
  • 7T. BayramovM
  • 6A. XaybulayevM
  • 20A. IsaevM
  • 18Oruc MəmmədovM
  • 10M. EmreliF
Substitutes
  • 17T. MütəllimovD
  • 9M. QurbanlıF
  • 16E. MustafaevM
  • 8E. MahmudovM
  • 12Ş. MəhəmmədəliyevG
  • 23A. BayramovG
  • 14E. BədəlovD
  • 22A. SalyanskiyF
  • 11K. AliyevM
Coach: Aykhan Abbasov

Form going into Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

Liechtenstein

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Azerbaijan1 October 2026
  • L0-2Lithuania24 September 2026

Azerbaijan

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0Lithuania4 October 2026
  • D0-0Liechtenstein1 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lithuania27 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Liechtenstein301203-31
1Azerbaijan422031+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan

  • 1 October 2026Azerbaijan 0–0 LiechtensteinUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Azerbaijan won 1–0 at Liechtenstein. The goal: Mahir Emreli 26' for Azerbaijan. On expected goals it finished 0.36–1.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Liechtenstein Azerbaijan
0.36 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
1.63 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.11
0.54 Model expected goals (this match) 1.20

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Azerbaijan the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.54 expected goals for Liechtenstein against 1.20 for Azerbaijan. Liechtenstein's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.11 for Azerbaijan.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 49% for Azerbaijan to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Azerbaijan to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Liechtenstein's ratings add 8 points and Azerbaijan's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%−3
  4. Liechtenstein's ratings39%+8
  5. Azerbaijan's ratings49%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.