England
vs
Croatia
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: England 2-1 Croatia.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% England, 24% draw, 22% Croatia — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: England 1.99, Croatia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: England vs Croatia
Has the model earned this number?
England at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — England vs Croatia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 6J. QuansahD
- 5D. BurnD
- 3L. HallD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 4D. RiceM
- 17M. RogersM
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 13J. TraffordG
- 12B. WhiteD
- 15J. BranthwaiteD
- 19D. Calvert-LewinF
- 21E. EzeM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 7M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14J. HillD
- 22Joshua KingM
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 14I. SmolčićD
- 2J. StanišićD
- 3L. VuškovićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 22J. MišićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 17P. SučićM
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 13N. VlašićM
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 11A. BudimirF
- 5D. Ćaleta-CarD
- 6N. GalešićD
- 18Š. HrgovićD
- 23D. KotarskiG
- 7L. MajerM
- 10L. ModrićM
- 12I. PandurG
- 15Mario PasalicM
Form going into England vs Croatia
England
UEFA Nations League
- W3-0Czech Republic6 October 2026
- W7-0away to Croatia3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Czech Republic29 September 2026
- L2-3Spain26 September 2026
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2Spain6 October 2026
- L0-7England3 October 2026
- L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Czech Republic26 September 2026
What these results say
- England scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- England won 3 of these 4 matches.
- England kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Croatia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Croatia had three goals or more.
- Croatia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 12 |
| 3 | Croatia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Croatia vs England
Croatia and England have met 7 times in the records we hold, England has won 5 of them to Croatia's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
England won the last one 2–1 on 12 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| England | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueEngland 2–1 Croatia - 3 Oct 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueCroatia 0–7 England - 17 Jun 2026
World CupEngland 4–2 Croatia - 13 Jun 2021
Euro ChampionshipEngland 1–0 Croatia - 18 Nov 2018
UEFA Nations LeagueEngland 2–1 Croatia - 12 Oct 2018
UEFA Nations LeagueCroatia 0–0 England - 11 Jul 2018
World CupCroatia 2–1 England
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, England's attack rates 45% above Croatia's, and England concede 14% fewer than Croatia. That gives England the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: England and Croatia
England
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane71
- A. Gordon31
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
England beat Croatia 2–1. The goals: Morgan Rogers 24' for England, Petar Sučić 59' for Croatia, Harry Kane (penalty) 64' for England. On expected goals it finished 2.86–1.24.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives England the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for England against 1.09 for Croatia. England's attack/defence rating is 1.75/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.84 for Croatia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for England to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for England to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, England's ratings add 8 points and Croatia's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level39%+1
- England's ratings47%+8
- Croatia's ratings54%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.