League C - 5 · 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Albania vs Finland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Arena Kombëtare, Tirana
Referee: Joao Pinheiro
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Albania 2-0 Finland.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Albania, 31% draw, 31% Finland — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Albania 1.22, Finland 1.04.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Albania vs Finland

46%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%1-0 12%0-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

Albania at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Albania99%Draw1%Finland0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
Leo Walta
⚽Ernest Muci
35'
45'
Adam Markhiev
⚽Rey Manajassist: Elseid Hysaj
50'
Ylber Ramadani
58'
59'
🔁Adam Stahlout: Tony Miettinen
59'
🔁Oliver Antmanout: Joel Pohjanpalo
67'
Miro Tenho
🔁Rey Manajout: Mirlind Daku
70'
🔁Ylber Ramadaniout: Juljan Shehu
70'
71'
🔁Topi Keskinenout: Luka Hyryläinen
77'
🔁Adam Markhievout: Anssi Suhonen
77'
🔁Fredrik Jensenout: Robert Ivanov
🔁Ernest Muciout: Arber Hoxha
82'
🔁Qazim Laciout: Luis Hasa
82'
🔁Stavros Piliosout: Myrto Uzuni
90+1'

Match stats — Albania vs Finland

56%Possession44%
18Shots13
6On target1
5Corners0
1.28xG1.61

Goals against chances

Albania2 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth
Finland0 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Albania 3-4-2-1
  • 1E. BerishaG
  • 6B. DjimsitiD
  • 18A. IsmajliD
  • 3M. MitajD
  • 4E. HysajM
  • 20Y. RamadaniM
  • 8K. AsllaniM
  • 2S. PiliosM
  • 10E. MuçiM
  • 14Q. LaçiM
  • 7R. ManajF
Substitutes
  • 17T. SeferiF
  • 13N. AlijiD
  • 15K. CakeD
  • 23M. DajsinaniG
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 22L. HasaM
  • 21A. HoxhaF
  • 16J. ShehuM
  • 12A. SherriG
Coach: R. Maran
Finland 4-1-4-1
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 18T. KeskinenD
  • 3A. StåhlD
  • 5M. TenhoD
  • 21V. KoskiD
  • 17R. MahutaD
  • 9F. JensenM
  • 11A. MarhievM
  • 10L. WaltaM
  • 19B. KällmanF
  • 7O. AntmanF
Substitutes
  • 4R. IvanovD
  • 13J. LähteenmäkiD
  • 14L. HyryläinenM
  • 15O. ValakariM
  • 6S. VäänänenM
  • 16A. SuhonenM
  • 8N. SkyttäM
  • 12V. SinisaloG
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
Coach: J. Friis

Form going into Albania vs Finland

Albania

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1San Marino6 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Finland3 October 2026
  • W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
  • W2-0Belarus26 September 2026

Finland

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1away to Belarus6 October 2026
  • W2-1Albania3 October 2026
  • D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
  • W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026

What these results say

  • Albania scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Albania won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Albania had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Albania5401103+712
3Finland521294+57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albania vs Finland

  • 3 October 2026Finland 2–1 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Albania and Finland

Albania

GoalsAssists

  • R. Manaj31

Finland

GoalsAssists

  • L. Walta41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Albania beat Finland 2–0. The goals: Ernest Muci 35' for Albania, Rey Manaj 50' for Albania. Sent off: Miro Tenho (Finland) 67'. On expected goals it finished 1.28–1.61.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Albania Finland
0.94 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.97
0.86 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.96
1.22 Model expected goals (this match) 1.04

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Albania the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Albania against 1.04 for Finland. Albania's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.96 for Finland.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 38% for Albania to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Albania to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Albania's ratings add 1 point and Finland's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage38%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level36%−2
  4. Albania's ratings37%+1
  5. Finland's ratings38%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.