Czech Republic
vs
Spain
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Czech Republic 0-2 Spain.
Before kick-off the model made it 10% Czech Republic, 18% draw, 72% Spain — fair odds of 10.00, 5.56 and 1.39.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Czech Republic 0.73, Spain 2.68.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Czech Republic vs Spain
Has the model earned this number?
Spain at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Czech Republic vs Spain
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. KovářG
- 5V. CoufalD
- 6D. ZimaD
- 7L. KrejčíD
- 14D. JurásekD
- 21A. KrálM
- 12L. ČervM
- 13L. AmbrosM
- 10A. HložekM
- 17L. ProvodM
- 9R. NaderiF
- 20K. DaněkM
- 3T. VlčekD
- 18M. ŠubertM
- 22T. SoučekM
- 15J. SlámaD
- 19D. KozelM
- 23A. KinskýG
- 2Š. ChaloupekD
- 4A. GabrielD
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Pedro PorroD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 9FermínM
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 7Ferran TorresF
- 17Marc RocaM
- 16Pablo BarriosM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 1David RayaG
- 14Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 2Marc PubillD
- 20PedriM
- 10Víctor MuñozF
- 6Mikel MerinoM
Form going into Czech Republic vs Spain
Czech Republic
No earlier matches on record this season.
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Croatia6 October 2026
- W3-1Czech Republic3 October 2026
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
What these results say
- Spain won every one of these 4 matches.
- Spain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Spain conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Czech Republic vs Spain
- 3 October 2026Spain 3–1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 12 June 2022Spain 2–0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 5 June 2022Czechia 2–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 13 June 2016Spain 1–0 CzechiaEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Czech Republic and Spain
Czech Republic
No leading scorers listed yet.
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain won 2–0 at Czech Republic. The goals: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez (penalty) 39' for Spain, Marc Pubill 90+6' for Spain. Sent off: Ladislav Krejčí (Czech Republic) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.22–3.64.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spain the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Czech Republic against 2.68 for Spain. Czech Republic's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.73/0.55 for Spain.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 72% for Spain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spain to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Czech Republic's ratings add 20 points and Spain's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Czech Republic's ratings54%+20
- Spain's ratings72%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.