League B - 5 · 14 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Georgia vs Hungary UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Referee: Ondrej Berka
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Georgia 0-2 Hungary.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Georgia, 34% draw, 44% Hungary — fair odds of 4.55, 2.94 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Georgia 0.61, Hungary 1.06.

Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Georgia vs Hungary

30%
Both teams to score
23%
Over 2.5 goals
77%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 19%0-1 19%1-1 13%

Has the model earned this number?

Hungary at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Willi Orbán
51'
Milan Vitális
Georgiy Tsitaishvili
60'
61'
🔁Zsolt Nagyout: Áron Csongvai
🔁Georgiy Tsitaishviliout: Zuriko Davitashvili
63'
70'
🔁Attila Osváthout: Bendeguz Bolla
70'
🔁Milan Vitálisout: Rajmund Tóth
73'
⚽Lasha Dvali (OG)
🔁Giorgi Chakvetadzeout: Budu Zivzivadze
77'
🔁Lasha Dvaliout: Irakli Azarov
77'
🔁Nika Gagnidzeout: Irakli Yegoian
77'
85'
⚽Barnabás Vargaassist: Dominik Szoboszlai
86'
🔁Barnabás Vargaout: Ákos Szendrei
86'
🔁Roland Sallaiout: Milan Pető
🔁Giorgi Kvernadzeout: Giorgi Guliashvili
90'

Match stats — Georgia vs Hungary

53%Possession47%
7Shots12
1On target6
8Corners6
0.69xG1.56

Goals against chances

Georgia0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth
Hungary2 from 1.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Georgia 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. MamardashviliG
  • 2O. KakabadzeD
  • 5S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4L. LochoshviliD
  • 20N. GagnidzeM
  • 14A. MekvabishviliM
  • 19G. TsitaishviliM
  • 10G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 22G. MikautadzeF
Substitutes
  • 18I. YegoianM
  • 7Z. DavitashviliF
  • 9G. GuliashviliF
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 8N. LominadzeM
  • 23L. GugeshashviliG
  • 12G. MaisuradzeD
  • 15S. SazonovD
  • 16I. AzaroviD
Coach: R. Svanadze
Hungary 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. TóthG
  • 2A. OsváthD
  • 6W. OrbánD
  • 3M. CsingerD
  • 11M. KerkezD
  • 8M. VitálisM
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 20R. SallaiM
  • 10D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 18Z. NagyM
  • 19B. VargaF
Substitutes
  • 17C. StylesD
  • 12B. Gundel-TakácsG
  • 22Á. PécsiG
  • 15Á. CsongvaiM
  • 14B. BollaD
  • 5A. MarkgráfD
  • 4A. SzalaiD
  • 23G. JurekF
  • 21R.TóthM
Coach: M. Rossi

Form going into Georgia vs Hungary

Georgia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland5 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Hungary2 October 2026
  • D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

Hungary

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Ukraine5 October 2026
  • W1-0Georgia2 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

What these results say

  • Georgia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Georgia failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Georgia had two goals or fewer.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Hungary had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Georgia502304-42
2Hungary531152+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Georgia vs Hungary

  • 2 October 2026Hungary 1–0 GeorgiaUEFA Nations League

The result against the call

Hungary won 2–0 at Georgia. The goals: Lasha Dvali (own goal) 73' for Hungary, Barnabás Varga 85' for Hungary. On expected goals it finished 0.69–1.56.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Georgia Hungary
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.05
0.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.67
0.61 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hungary the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Georgia against 1.06 for Hungary. Georgia's attack/defence rating is 0.67/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/0.67 for Hungary.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 44% for Hungary to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hungary to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Georgia's ratings add 5 points and Hungary's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level31%−3
  4. Georgia's ratings36%+5
  5. Hungary's ratings44%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.