Sweden
vs
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Sweden 3-2 Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sweden, 30% draw, 32% Bosnia & Herzegovina — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sweden 1.26, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.13.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Has the model earned this number?
Sweden at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 8D. SvenssonM
- 2G. LagerbielkeD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 11A. ElangaF
- 20H. LarssonM
- 18Y. AyariM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 9A. IsakF
- 6F. BeijmoM
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 23N. TörnqvistG
- 7E. StroudM
- 4E. SmithM
- 10B. NygrenF
- 22A. NjieF
- 15G. AntwiM
- 13A. BernhardssonF
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 21S. RadeljićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 7A. DedićD
- 8A. GigovićM
- 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićF
- 10E. DemirovićF
- 13I. BašićM
- 23H. TabakovićF
- 11E. BajraktarevicF
- 6B. TahirovićM
- 9S. BaždarF
- 17D. BurnićD
- 14I. ŠunjićM
- 4Z. SmajlovićD
- 2N. MujakićD
- 15A. MemićF
- 3A. MalicM
- 16Ermin MahmićM
Form going into Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sweden
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0away to Romania5 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina2 October 2026
- W3-1Poland28 September 2026
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Poland5 October 2026
- D1-1Sweden2 October 2026
- W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
What these results say
- Sweden went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sweden scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sweden won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bosnia & Herzegovina had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 2 October 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 SwedenUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres60
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sweden beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–2. The goals: Daniel Svensson 5' for Sweden, Viktor Gyökeres (penalty) 11' for Sweden, Viktor Gyökeres (penalty) 45+2' for Sweden, Armin Gigovic 47' for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Sead Kolašinac 62' for Bosnia & Herzegovina. On expected goals it finished 2.32–1.16.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sweden the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sweden against 1.13 for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Sweden's attack/defence rating is 1/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.93 for Bosnia & Herzegovina.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 38% for Sweden to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sweden to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sweden's ratings add 1 point and Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Sweden's ratings38%+1
- Bosnia & Herzegovina's ratings38%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.