Romania
vs
Poland
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Romania 2-1 Poland.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Romania, 26% draw, 49% Poland — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Romania 1.10, Poland 1.79.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Romania vs Poland
Has the model earned this number?
Poland at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Romania vs Poland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12O. HindrichG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 15L. EissatD
- 8A. CicâldăuM
- 6T. BăluțăM
- 22V. DragomirM
- 10I. HagiM
- 7F. ComanF
- 20D. ManF
- 9D. BîrligeaF
- 11N. BancuD
- 21O. MoruțanF
- 13M. IlieD
- 5V. GhițăD
- 16L. PopescuG
- 17V. ScreciuM
- 19M. CorbuM
- 18C. CîrjanM
- 1B. DrągowskiG
- 2M. CashD
- 23K. PotulskiD
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 5O. KubiakD
- 18M. RegułaM
- 16W. NowakM
- 20S. SzymańskiM
- 21N. ZalewskiM
- 11K. ŚwiderskiF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 4T. KędzioraD
- 12M. KochalskiG
- 6B. MazurekM
- 3K. PiątkowskiD
- 19Ł. PorębaM
- 15T. PuchaczD
- 10A. PyrkaD
- 17M. SkóraśF
- 8K. UrbaÅskiM
Form going into Romania vs Poland
Romania
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Sweden5 October 2026
- L0-6away to Poland2 October 2026
- L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
Poland
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina5 October 2026
- W6-0Romania2 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
What these results say
- Romania did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Romania conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Romania had three goals or more.
- Poland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Romania | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Romania vs Poland
- 2 October 2026Poland 6–0 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
- 10 June 2017Poland 3–1 RomaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 11 November 2016Romania 0–3 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
The result against the call
Romania beat Poland 2–1. The goals: Alexandru Cicâldău 68' for Romania, Dennis Man 72' for Romania, Marcel Regula 82' for Poland. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.62.
How the call on Romania v Poland has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 25% / 26% / 49%: the biggest move is Poland's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Romania win25%▲ +1
- Draw26%▲ +2
- Poland win49%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Poland the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Romania against 1.79 for Poland. Romania's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.86 for Poland.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 49% for Poland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Poland to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Romania's ratings add 8 points and Poland's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Romania's ratings42%+8
- Poland's ratings49%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.