VVV Venlo
vs
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: VVV Venlo 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% VVV Venlo, 24% draw, 20% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 2.09, FC Eindhoven 1.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
VVV Venlo at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
- 14Raf VullersD
- 4É. ClancyD
- 33G. BlancquartD
- 5Lars de BlokD
- 6A. VerstraetenM
- 38Tristan SchenkhuizenM
- 7E. ZulianiM
- 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
- 19Thomas JanssenM
- 9M. TsigkasF
- 43D. HendrixF
- 21L. GörlichD
- 1T. DoornbuschG
- 31M. DavisD
- 15Tijn JoostenD
- 24M. OdrissM
- 34A. RaisF
- 22Zidane TaylanG
- 35Yousri El AnbriM
- 1J. BorgmansG
- 17L. NettenD
- 44O. RenfrumD
- 5R. BoonD
- 20Raf van de RietD
- 28R. BuifrahiM
- 14N. MunstersM
- 8X. BlommeM
- 77V. BesuijenM
- 6G. BeaumontM
- 19Kevin FerreiraF
- 18Antonio BaždarićM
- 13A. BrysonF
- 23Gideon ConstanciaF
- 7H. DeenenF
- 30N. FancitoG
- 31N. JanssenG
- 10Lasse AbildgaardF
- 21A. OzcanF
- 16B. RoversD
Form going into VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Jong PSV U216 November 2026
- W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie
- L0-3Jong Ajax6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Helmond Sport30 October 2026
- L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
- L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- VVV Venlo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Eindhoven did not win any of these 4 matches.
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 29 |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven
- 7 February 2026VVV Venlo 1–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 24 October 2025FC Eindhoven 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 22 March 2025VVV Venlo 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 13 December 2024FC Eindhoven 1–3 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 23 February 2024VVV Venlo 2–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 10 November 2023FC Eindhoven 0–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- É. Clancy51
- L. Schmidt51
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 1.3% chance of the title and FC Eindhoven 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VVV Venlo a 95.2% chance to finish in the top eight: 96.2% after a win, 93.7% after a draw, 92.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.3%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
For FC Eindhoven the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 58.1% going in: 46.3% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.3%, 11.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.07 for FC Eindhoven. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.92 for FC Eindhoven.
How the model reaches 56% for VVV Venlo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for VVV Venlo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, VVV Venlo's ratings add 6 points and FC Eindhoven's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- VVV Venlo's ratings51%+6
- FC Eindhoven's ratings56%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.