San Marino
vs
Belarus
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: San Marino 0-2 Belarus.
Before kick-off the model made it 10% San Marino, 21% draw, 69% Belarus — fair odds of 10.00, 4.76 and 1.45.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (15%).
Expected goals: San Marino 0.56, Belarus 2.20.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: San Marino vs Belarus
Has the model earned this number?
Belarus at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Marino vs Belarus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. ColomboG
- 2G. BenvenutiD
- 4F. FabbriD
- 15M. PasoliniD
- 3S. GiocondiD
- 18Balda Enea DellaM
- 8L. CapicchioniM
- 10S. ZannoniM
- 21L. LazzariM
- 9N. NanniF
- 7G. CapicchioniF
- 6D. RossiD
- 19S. PancottiF
- 22M. MularoniM
- 13P. AmiciG
- 11Andrea ContadiniM
- 23M. De AngelisG
- 17A. GolinucciM
- 5T. BenvenutiD
- 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 5V. KalininD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 13K. GomanovD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 8A. SelyavaM
- 15V. BocherovM
- 22A. KontsevoyM
- 9M. EbongM
- 10V. GromykoM
- 11T. SimanenkaF
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 14K. ZinovichM
- 4A. LukashovD
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
- 18V. MorozovF
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 19G. ShevchenkoD
- 7A. SvirepaM
- 3I. TikhomirovD
Form going into San Marino vs Belarus
San Marino
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Albania6 October 2026
- L0-4away to Belarus3 October 2026
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Finland6 October 2026
- W4-0San Marino3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
What these results say
- San Marino did not win any of these 4 matches.
- San Marino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for San Marino had three goals or more.
- Belarus kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Belarus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Marino | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 |
| 2 | Belarus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Marino vs Belarus
- 3 October 2026Belarus 4–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
- 18 November 2018San Marino 0–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018Belarus 5–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Belarus won 2–0 at San Marino. The goals: Kirill Gomanov 12' for Belarus, Artem Kontsevoy 17' for Belarus. Sent off: Aleksandr Svirepa (Belarus) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.37–1.96.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belarus the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.56 expected goals for San Marino against 2.20 for Belarus. San Marino's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.95 for Belarus.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 69% for Belarus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Belarus to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, San Marino's ratings add 18 points and Belarus's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- San Marino's ratings51%+18
- Belarus's ratings69%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.