Slovakia
vs
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Slovakia 2-2 Faroe Islands.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Slovakia, 26% draw, 20% Faroe Islands — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Slovakia 1.80, Faroe Islands 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
Has the model earned this number?
Slovakia at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 4M. ValjentD
- 5Ľ. ŠatkaD
- 14M. ŠkriniarD
- 16D. HanckoD
- 22L. ReisM
- 10A. RusnákM
- 8O. DudaM
- 20E. PrekopF
- 15D. StrelecF
- 17L. HaraslínF
- 18A. KaprálikF
- 11T. BobčekF
- 21M. BeroM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 2I. MesíkD
- 6P. PokornýM
- 19T. RigoM
- 12M. RodákG
- 13M. SauerM
- 1M. LamhaugeG
- 15O. FærøD
- 16G. VatnhamarD
- 5A. EdmundssonD
- 2J. DanielsenM
- 21G. TuriM
- 22J. AndreasenM
- 3V. í DavidsenM
- 9Á. SamuelsenF
- 11P. KnudsenF
- 20H. SørensenF
- 10M. OlsenM
- 6A. SvenssonD
- 23B. ReynatrodG
- 12A. PetersenG
- 14P. KallsbergF
- 17A. JustinussenF
- 13M. HellisdalM
- 8Á. DamM
- 4S. ChukwudiD
Form going into Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
Slovakia
UEFA Nations League
- W4-0away to Moldova6 October 2026
- D1-1away to Faroe Islands2 October 2026
- W2-1Kazakhstan29 September 2026
- W2-0Moldova26 September 2026
Faroe Islands
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2away to Kazakhstan6 October 2026
- D1-1Slovakia2 October 2026
- D1-1away to Moldova29 September 2026
- D1-1Kazakhstan26 September 2026
What these results say
- Slovakia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Slovakia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Slovakia won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Faroe Islands scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 |
| 3 | Faroe Islands | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovakia vs Faroe Islands
- 2 October 2026Faroe Islands 1–1 SlovakiaUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Slovakia and Faroe Islands drew 2–2. The goals: Erik Prekop 17' for Slovakia, Viljormur Davidsen (penalty) 30' for Faroe Islands, Áki Samuelsen 47' for Faroe Islands, Lukáš Haraslín 74' for Slovakia. On expected goals it finished 1.67–2.09.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovakia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Slovakia against 0.88 for Faroe Islands. Slovakia's attack/defence rating is 1.1/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.21 for Faroe Islands.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for Slovakia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovakia to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Slovakia's ratings add 9 points and Faroe Islands's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Slovakia's ratings46%+9
- Faroe Islands's ratings54%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.