Moldova
vs
Kazakhstan
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Moldova 2-1 Kazakhstan.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Moldova, 29% draw, 38% Kazakhstan — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Moldova 1.23, Kazakhstan 1.35.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Has the model earned this number?
Kazakhstan at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CeleadnicG
- 21I. RevencoD
- 4V. BabogloD
- 18I. IovuD
- 6M. GherasimencovD
- 2O. ReabciukD
- 10Vladimir FrateaM
- 22V. RaţăM
- 9S. PerciunM
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 15Petru PopescuF
- 8V. BogaciucM
- 13A. BetivuF
- 17O. DavidM
- 19D. DumbrăvanuD
- 16D. ForovF
- 23A. KozhukharG
- 14D. MarandiciD
- 7N. MoțpanM
- 5S. NegruD
- 1S. PokatilovG
- 13A. MrynskiyD
- 6A. KassymD
- 23T. ErlanovD
- 3N. AlipD
- 14N. ZhagorovD
- 20R. OrazovM
- 18D. KaramanM
- 15Z. AmirM
- 10M. SamorodovF
- 17I. ChesnokovF
- 12Bekkhan ShayzadaG
- 2A. ZhumakhanovD
- 11Y. VorogovskiyD
- 22E. TapalovD
- 4A. AshirbekM
- 5I. KuatM
- 7G. KenzhebekM
- 21A. TuyakbayevM
- 19A. ZhaksylykovF
Form going into Moldova vs Kazakhstan
Moldova
UEFA Nations League
- L0-4Slovakia6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kazakhstan2 October 2026
- D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026
Kazakhstan
UEFA Nations League
- D2-2Faroe Islands6 October 2026
- L1-2Moldova2 October 2026
- L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026
What these results say
- Moldova conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Moldova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kazakhstan did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Kazakhstan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kazakhstan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Moldova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moldova vs Kazakhstan
- 2 October 2026Kazakhstan 1–2 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
- 29 March 2022Kazakhstan 0–1 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
- 24 March 2022Moldova 1–2 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
- 21 February 2019Kazakhstan 1–0 MoldovaFriendlies
Leading scorers: Moldova and Kazakhstan
Moldova
GoalsAssists
- Petru Popescu30
Kazakhstan
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Moldova beat Kazakhstan 2–1. The goals: Petru popescu 39' for Moldova, Islam Chesnokov 51' for Kazakhstan, Petru popescu 77' for Moldova. Sent off: Maksim Samorodov (Kazakhstan) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.55.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kazakhstan the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Moldova against 1.35 for Kazakhstan. Moldova's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.47 for Kazakhstan.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 38% for Kazakhstan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kazakhstan to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Moldova's ratings add 2 points and Kazakhstan's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Moldova's ratings36%+2
- Kazakhstan's ratings38%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.