Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Roda vs FC Volendam Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Parkstad Limburg, Kerkrade
Referee: Richard Martens
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Roda 3-1 FC Volendam.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Roda, 28% draw, 29% FC Volendam — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Roda 1.53, FC Volendam 1.18.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Model insights: Roda vs FC Volendam

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 10%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

Roda at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Roda96%Draw4%FC Volendam0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Marco Tol
12'
31'
⚽Nick Doodemanassist: Y. Jaber el Maftahi
🔁Guilherme Martinho Peixotoout: X. van den Berg
68'
🔁Joey Sleegersout: Cain Seedorf
68'
🔁Jerome Deomout: Luuk Verheij
68'
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Cain Seedorf
71'
🔁Mitchel Paulissenout: Bram Marsman
77'
77'
🔁Y. Jaber el Maftahiout: Frederik Ihler
77'
🔁Mohammed Belfqihout: D. Bisschops
86'
🔁Mawouna Amevorout: Luca Blondeau
86'
🔁Nick Doodemanout: Serigne Abdou Lahat Deme
🔁Anthony van den Hurkout: Fynn Schenten
90+2'
⚽Fynn Schentenassist: Joshua Nisbet
90+3'

Match stats — Roda vs FC Volendam

51%Possession49%
16Shots13
9On target3
7Corners8
2.88xG1.48

Goals against chances

Roda3 from 2.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Volendam1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoM
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 26J. SleegersM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 19N. CrabuM
  • 22Rayan KhoumsM
  • 25Bram MarsmanD
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 7C. SeedorfF
  • 21M. StojcevicG
  • 2Luuk VerheijM
  • 28J. van DammeG
  • 27K. Van MieghemM
Coach: R. Penders
FC Volendam 4-2-3-1
  • 16R. SteurG
  • 18N. BukalaD
  • 6A. PlatD
  • 3M. AmevorD
  • 2P. UgwuD
  • 8D. HuismanM
  • 34M. BelfqihM
  • 7N. DoodemanM
  • 10R. NiemeijerM
  • 21Y. el MaftahiM
  • 9H. VeermanF
Substitutes
  • 46M. van der HorstM
  • 22D. VlakG
  • 29Jesper TielemansF
  • 4E. SchoutenD
  • 14S. DemeF
  • 32Lex KoningG
  • 63J. HaakmatD
  • 67F. IhlerF
  • 25Luca BlondeauD
Coach: E. van de Looi

Form going into Roda vs FC Volendam

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-5away to Heracles6 November 2026
  • W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026

FC Volendam

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-2away to Helmond Sport6 November 2026
  • L1-2De Graafschap30 October 2026
  • W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Roda scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Roda conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Roda had three goals or more.
  • FC Volendam scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Volendam conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for FC Volendam.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Roda158432118+328
7FC Volendam157173427+722

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Roda vs FC Volendam

  • 2 May 2025FC Volendam 3–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 29 November 2024Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 7 February 2022Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 13 September 2021FC Volendam 2–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 6 March 2021FC Volendam 3–4 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 4 October 2020Roda 1–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Roda and FC Volendam

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman142
  • R. Niemeijer52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Roda a 0.6% chance of the title and FC Volendam 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Roda a 71.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 78.6% after a win, 69.8% after a draw, 64.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.6%, 7.2 points higher than before the match.

For FC Volendam the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 74.7% going in: 80.5% after a win, 74.8% after a draw, 70.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.4%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Roda FC Volendam
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.72
1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.85
1.53 Model expected goals (this match) 1.18

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Roda the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Roda against 1.18 for FC Volendam. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.85 for FC Volendam.

Roda carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.39 for FC Volendam. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Roda to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Roda to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Roda's ratings take away 2 points and FC Volendam's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Roda's ratings42%−2
  4. FC Volendam's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.