La Liga predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Athletic Club vs Espanyol — model 47% / 29% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.45 · 4.17. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna — model 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.45 · 3.23. Evenly matched
• 15:15 UTC Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Evenly matched
• 17:30 UTC Sevilla vs Real Betis — model 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.70 · 2.33. Edge: Real Betis
• 20:00 UTC Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo — model 70% / 20% / 10%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.43 · 5.00 · 10.00. One-sided: Real Madrid

Sunday 22 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Barcelona vs Villarreal — model 62% / 21% / 17%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.61 · 4.76 · 5.88. Edge: Barcelona
• 15:15 UTC Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad — model 29% / 22% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.55 · 2.04. Edge: Real Sociedad
• 17:30 UTC Osasuna vs Malaga — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 20:00 UTC Getafe vs Atletico Madrid — model 19% / 29% / 52%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.26 · 3.45 · 1.92. One-sided: Atletico Madrid

Monday 23 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Levante vs Elche — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched

Friday 27 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Levante vs Racing Santander — model 56% / 22% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.79 · 4.55 · 4.55. Edge: Levante

Saturday 28 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Real Betis
• 15:15 UTC Malaga vs Athletic Club — model 26% / 28% / 46%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.57 · 2.17. One-sided: Athletic Club
• 17:30 UTC Elche vs Atletico Madrid — model 24% / 26% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.85 · 2.00. One-sided: Atletico Madrid
• 20:00 UTC Real Madrid vs Alaves — model 76% / 16% / 8%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.32 · 6.25 · 12.50. One-sided: Real Madrid

Sunday 29 November — 4 matches

• 13:00 UTC Valencia vs Osasuna — model 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.45 · 3.70. Evenly matched
• 15:15 UTC Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona — model 20% / 24% / 56%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.17 · 1.79. One-sided: Barcelona
• 17:30 UTC Celta Vigo vs Villarreal — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63. Edge: Villarreal
• 20:00 UTC Real Sociedad vs Sevilla — model 54% / 23% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.85 · 4.35 · 4.35. Edge: Real Sociedad

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 4 of 10 matches. Across all 119 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 50% of results.

• Sevilla 0–0 Alaves — the model said 46% / 26% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Malaga 1–2 Racing Santander — the model said 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Espanyol 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna — the model said 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club — the model said 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Valencia 0–3 Real Madrid — the model said 16% / 25% / 59%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Elche 0–2 Real Betis — the model said 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo Vallecano — the model said 54% / 22% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Celta Vigo 0–0 Levante — the model said 44% / 29% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Villarreal 2–0 Getafe — the model said 56% / 27% / 17%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona — the model said 39% / 26% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

La Liga so far

Top of the table

• 1. Barcelona — 33 pts from 12 (11W 0D 1L, goals 48–13)
• 2. Real Madrid — 30 pts from 12 (10W 0D 2L, goals 31–10)
• 3. Atletico Madrid — 28 pts from 12 (9W 1D 2L, goals 23–10)
• 4. Real Betis — 26 pts from 12 (8W 2D 2L, goals 20–15)
• 5. Real Sociedad — 22 pts from 12 (7W 1D 4L, goals 21–20)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 260 matches left: Barcelona 50.3%, Real Madrid 43.5%, Atletico Madrid 5.3%.

Leading scorers: Raphinha (Barcelona) 15 goals, Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) 13 goals, Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) 10 goals.