Salford City
vs
Northampton
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Salford City 1-1 Northampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Salford City, 32% draw, 23% Northampton — fair odds of 2.22, 3.13 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Salford City 1.22, Northampton 0.71.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%, under 2.5: 70%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Salford City vs Northampton
Has the model earned this number?
Salford City at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Salford City vs Northampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1W. NorrisG
- 14A. OdohD
- 22A. OluwoD
- 17D. ScarrD
- 4W. AimsonD
- 29L. GarbuttD
- 21K. CesayM
- 44B. Sarpong-WireduM
- 18M. ButcherM
- 23D. UdohF
- 9M. LangstaffF
- 6J. PowellM
- 20O. TurtonD
- 7B. WoodburnM
- 19R. GraydonF
- 15B. CooperD
- 26L. BurgeG
- 24T. AllenD
- 34R. FitzsimonsG
- 15C. McCarthyD
- 6E. MooreD
- 5J. GuthrieD
- 3J. MaxwellD
- 16J. WormleightonM
- 24C. Lemonheigh-EvansM
- 8L. EvansM
- 4J. O'Brien-WhitmarshM
- 19O. DaleF
- 9Matthew WarhurstF
- 10E. ListF
- 17N. OpokuF
- 22Joshua Alan PowellD
- 32H. SaundersF
- 20L. BriggsM
- 35M. DycheD
- 31J. DadgeG
Form going into Salford City vs Northampton
Salford City
League Two
- W2-1Exeter City31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Walsall26 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol Rovers20 October 2026
- W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
Northampton
League Two
- L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
- D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
- W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
- L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026
What these results say
- Salford City won every one of these 4 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Salford City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 32 |
| 19 | Northampton | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Northampton
- 7 January 2023Salford City 2–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 8 October 2022Northampton 0–1 Salford CityLeague Two
- 29 January 2022Northampton 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 25 September 2021Salford City 2–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 11 January 2020Salford City 1–2 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 19 October 2019Northampton 2–0 Salford CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Northampton
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- M. Langstaff51
Northampton
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 29% chance of the title and Northampton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Salford City a 37.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 41.7% after a win, 33.4% after a draw, 30.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.4%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.
For Northampton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.6% going in: 4.7% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.4%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Salford City against 0.71 for Northampton. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.46 for Northampton.
How the model reaches 45% for Salford City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Salford City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Salford City's ratings add 6 points and Northampton's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level37%−4
- Salford City's ratings43%+6
- Northampton's ratings45%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.