Rochdale
vs
York
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rochdale 0-1 York.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Rochdale, 25% draw, 47% York — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Rochdale 1.34, York 1.88.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Rochdale vs York
Has the model earned this number?
York at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rochdale vs York
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 21Kane TaylorD
- 24J. AllenM
- 8H. GilmourM
- 19L. HannantM
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 27B. BilongoD
- 6E. Ebanks-LandellD
- 4R. EastM
- 14E. FrancisM
- 7C. HayesF
- 40I. HendersonF
- 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
- 2R. FallowfieldD
- 5Z. JohnsonD
- 3M. KitchingD
- 23J. FelixM
- 16A. ReadM
- 8A. HuntM
- 12H. BoyesM
- 28O. BanksM
- 21H. BoatengM
- 10O. PearceF
- 30A. NewbyM
- 18J. MalcolmF
- 11F. MaguireM
- 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
- 9J. StonesF
- 7J. GreyF
- 4Z. MedleyD
Form going into Rochdale vs York
Rochdale
League Two
- L2-4away to Port Vale31 October 2026
- L0-5Accrington Stanley24 October 2026
- D2-2Grimsby20 October 2026
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
York
League Two
- L2-5away to Grimsby31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
- W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026
What these results say
- Rochdale did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rochdale conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Rochdale had three goals or more.
- York scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- York failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- York conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rochdale | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 15 |
| 4 | York | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs York
- 25 April 2026Rochdale 1–1 YorkNational League
- 11 November 2025York 4–1 RochdaleNational League
- 11 October 2025Rochdale 1–2 YorkFA Cup
- 25 March 2025Rochdale 0–4 YorkNational League
- 20 August 2024York 1–0 RochdaleNational League
- 16 December 2023Rochdale 0–0 YorkNational League
Leading scorers: Rochdale and York
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
York
GoalsAssists
- O. Pearce74
- A. Newby61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rochdale a 0% chance of the title and York 4.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rochdale a 34.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.9% after a win, 36.0% after a draw, 37.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.4%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
For York the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 14.3% going in: 16.7% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.7%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives York the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Rochdale against 1.88 for York. Rochdale's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.13 for York.
How the model reaches 47% for York to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for York to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Rochdale's ratings add 7 points and York's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Rochdale's ratings39%+7
- York's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.