Rotherham
vs
Crawley Town
League Two postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 43% Rotherham, 26% draw, 31% Crawley Town — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rotherham 1.66, Crawley Town 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
Rotherham at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Rotherham
League Two
- L1-2away to Swindon Town31 October 2026
- D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
Crawley Town
League Two
- W1-0away to Oldham31 October 2026
- D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
- L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
What these results say
- Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
- 29 March 2025Rotherham 0–4 Crawley TownLeague One
- 23 November 2024Crawley Town 1–0 RotherhamLeague One
- 25 January 2014Rotherham 2–2 Crawley TownLeague One
- 17 August 2013Crawley Town 1–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 24 March 2012Crawley Town 3–0 RotherhamLeague Two
- 26 November 2011Rotherham 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Rotherham and Crawley Town
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin80
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Rotherham v Crawley Town has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Rotherham's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Rotherham win43%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- Crawley Town win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rotherham the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rotherham against 1.34 for Crawley Town. Rotherham's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.35 for Crawley Town.
How the model reaches 43% for Rotherham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rotherham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Rotherham's ratings add 1 point and Crawley Town's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- Rotherham's ratings43%+1
- Crawley Town's ratings43%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.