Shrewsbury
vs
Oldham
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Shrewsbury 2-1 Oldham.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Shrewsbury, 29% draw, 36% Oldham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.27, Oldham 1.29.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Oldham
Has the model earned this number?
Oldham at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shrewsbury vs Oldham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1William Michael BrookG
- 6S. StubbsD
- 5W. BoyleD
- 3J. RuffelsD
- 2L. HooleM
- 10T. SangM
- 7J. Turner-CookeM
- 11K. BerkoeM
- 20M. GoldingM
- 9G. LloydF
- 13J. DavisonF
- 8Isaac Andrew FletcherM
- 27J. GbodeF
- 21will grayM
- 24L. SousaD
- 14C. StewartF
- 23I. LeeD
- 32Cameron GregoryG
- 1M. HudsonG
- 16W. SuttonD
- 5D. DanielsD
- 6E. MontheD
- 2G. Scott-MorrissM
- 8O. NorburnM
- 4T. PettM
- 3J. RobsonM
- 30Thomas Daniel HillM
- 10C. KavanaghF
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 14N. ChilversM
- 17F. FawunmiF
- 21J. HawkesM
- 20E. NevittF
- 24L. TempleD
- 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
- 22Wilson WilsonG
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Oldham
Shrewsbury
League Two
- L1-2Gillingham31 October 2026
- D3-3away to Rotherham24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Crawley Town20 October 2026
- W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026
Oldham
League Two
- W1-0away to Northampton3 November 2026
- L0-1Crawley Town31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barnet24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
What these results say
- Shrewsbury scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Shrewsbury conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Shrewsbury had three goals or more.
- Oldham failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Oldham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 21 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Oldham
- 11 April 2026Shrewsbury 1–0 OldhamLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Oldham 2–2 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 3 August 2024Oldham 1–0 ShrewsburyFriendlies Clubs
- 23 January 2018Shrewsbury 2–1 OldhamEFL Trophy
- 1 January 2018Shrewsbury 1–0 OldhamLeague One
- 16 September 2017Oldham 1–2 ShrewsburyLeague One
Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Oldham
Shrewsbury
GoalsAssists
- J. Davison51
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shrewsbury (10th, with Oldham 20th), while our numbers lean to Oldham. Oldham rate 0.46 in attack and 1.97 in defence, Shrewsbury 0.44 and 2.31 (lower is better in defence), so Oldham have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shrewsbury a 11.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.7% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.29 for Oldham. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.97 for Oldham.
How the model reaches 36% for Oldham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oldham to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Shrewsbury's ratings add 3 points and Oldham's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Shrewsbury's ratings34%+3
- Oldham's ratings36%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.