Port Vale
vs
Accrington Stanley
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Port Vale 4-2 Accrington Stanley.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Port Vale, 28% draw, 32% Accrington Stanley — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Port Vale 1.45, Accrington Stanley 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley
Has the model earned this number?
Port Vale at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20M. MarošiG
- 25C. HumphreysD
- 4J. MoonD
- 5C. HallD
- 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
- 33G. HallM
- 7G. ByersM
- 10K. DempseyM
- 3J. HeadleyM
- 36M. WattersF
- 11O. HernándezF
- 38R. WaltersM
- 27M. AsamoahF
- 42Charlie BusselM
- 14O. LynchF
- 12A. McGowanD
- 22L. MontsmaD
- 1J. SmithG
- 1L. MouldenG
- 4T. MooreD
- 5F. RawsonD
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 2D. LoveM
- 8C. GrantM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 20C. BrownM
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 30C. WarrenF
- 23T. WaltonF
- 49Ronan DarcyM
- 28S. ConneelyM
- 18C. CatonF
- 21J. RogersonG
- 3Oliver SmithD
- 25J. SmithD
- 7S. WhalleyF
Form going into Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley
Port Vale
League Two
- W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
- L0-2away to York24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
- W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
Accrington Stanley
League Two
- D1-1Northampton31 October 2026
- W5-0away to Rochdale24 October 2026
- D1-1away to York20 October 2026
- W3-1Gillingham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Port Vale scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Port Vale conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
- Accrington Stanley went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Accrington Stanley scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Accrington Stanley conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Accrington Stanley
- 7 October 2025Accrington Stanley 0–2 Port ValeEFL Trophy
- 1 February 2025Port Vale 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 21 September 2024Accrington Stanley 2–2 Port ValeLeague Two
- 7 April 2023Accrington Stanley 3–0 Port ValeLeague One
- 7 February 2023Port Vale 1–1 Accrington StanleyLeague One
- 6 November 2021Port Vale 5–1 Accrington StanleyFA Cup
Leading scorers: Port Vale and Accrington Stanley
Port Vale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- J. Woods71
- C. Caton50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Accrington Stanley (13th, with Port Vale 17th), while our numbers lean to Port Vale. Port Vale rate 0.46 in attack and 1.97 in defence, Accrington Stanley 0.52 and 2.14 (lower is better in defence), so Port Vale have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 1.1% chance of the title and Accrington Stanley 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Port Vale a 5.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 4.4% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
For Accrington Stanley the question was the chance to finish in the top three: 12.1% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.4%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Port Vale against 1.25 for Accrington Stanley. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.14 for Accrington Stanley.
How the model reaches 40% for Port Vale to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Port Vale to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Port Vale's ratings take away 1 point and Accrington Stanley's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Port Vale's ratings40%−1
- Accrington Stanley's ratings40%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.