Crewe
vs
Newport County
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crewe 2-2 Newport County.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Crewe, 28% draw, 31% Newport County — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Crewe 1.49, Newport County 1.23.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Crewe vs Newport County
Has the model earned this number?
Crewe at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crewe vs Newport County
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13I. LawlorG
- 2L. BillingtonD
- 6L. OffordD
- 12J. StephensonD
- 3R. HutchinsonD
- 8C. ThomasM
- 17M. HolíčekM
- 9J. MarchM
- 10J. WhiteM
- 14J. GibsonM
- 23C. McNeillF
- 29A. ThibautF
- 20Calum AgiusF
- 1T. BoothG
- 30Stan DanceyD
- 24J. JonesM
- 19O. LuntM
- 11J. TabinerM
- 1J. WrightG
- 34D. SassiD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 16M. JacobD
- 8M. SmithM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 20Y. BambaM
- 18A. LewisM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 28K. EteteF
- 3T. DaviesD
- 11J. CroleF
- 23M. Adu-PokuF
- 7K. EvansM
- 19G. GarnerF
- 9S. GwengweF
- 25J. TurnerG
Form going into Crewe vs Newport County
Crewe
League Two
- D1-1Barnet31 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
- W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
Newport County
League Two
- W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
- D1-1York17 October 2026
What these results say
- Crewe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crewe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crewe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Newport County conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Newport County failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Newport County scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Crewe | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 23 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Newport County
- 29 December 2025Newport County 2–0 CreweLeague Two
- 10 December 2025Crewe 2–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 8 February 2025Crewe 0–3 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 28 September 2024Newport County 2–1 CreweLeague Two
- 29 December 2023Newport County 1–1 CreweLeague Two
- 15 August 2023Crewe 4–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crewe and Newport County
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. Gibson52
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crewe a 0.7% chance of the title and Newport County 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crewe a 10.0% chance to finish in the top three: 11.8% after a win, 9.2% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crewe the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Crewe against 1.23 for Newport County. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.12 for Newport County.
How the model reaches 41% for Crewe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Crewe to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Crewe's ratings change nothing and Newport County's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Crewe's ratings41%±0
- Newport County's ratings41%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.