Fleetwood Town
vs
Tranmere
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Fleetwood Town 1-0 Tranmere.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Fleetwood Town, 28% draw, 26% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.50, Tranmere 1.01.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
Fleetwood Town at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. LynchG
- 16Conor HaugheyD
- 6R. BennettD
- 5F. PotterD
- 4H. NealM
- 26S. RooneyM
- 27C. McLeanM
- 10M. HelmM
- 24Jake Thomas BattyM
- 19R. CoughlanF
- 20A. Loupalo-BiF
- 3D. AndrewD
- 7A. CannonM
- 9W. DaviesF
- 28J. RobertsonM
- 17C. EvansF
- 15A. MurphyM
- 22J. PradicG
- 1L. McGeeG
- 22L. O'ConnorD
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 30G. NevettD
- 2J. SeniorM
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 3J. SlaterM
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 29D. JonesF
- 9J. IronsideF
- 12H. MaleG
- 26J. PlantM
- 5N. SmithD
- 20Charlie VeeversM
- 44R. WatsonM
- 14O. ScottD
- 24David KamaraF
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
League Two
- W3-1Bristol Rovers31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Exeter City24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Cheltenham20 October 2026
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- W3-1Cheltenham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Fleetwood Town had three goals or more.
- Tranmere scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Tranmere.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 20 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere
- 14 March 2026Fleetwood Town 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 26 December 2025Tranmere 1–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 2 December 2025Tranmere 0–3 Fleetwood TownEFL Trophy
- 22 March 2025Fleetwood Town 0–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 February 2025Tranmere 0–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 5 September 2023Fleetwood Town 2–0 TranmereEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Fleetwood Town and Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
GoalsAssists
- R. Coughlan51
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 0.6% chance of the title and Tranmere 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tranmere a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 3.8% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.01 for Tranmere. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.22 for Tranmere.
How the model reaches 46% for Fleetwood Town to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fleetwood Town to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fleetwood Town's ratings add 3 points and Tranmere's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Fleetwood Town's ratings43%+3
- Tranmere's ratings46%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.