Exeter City
vs
Cheltenham
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Exeter City 1-0 Cheltenham.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Exeter City, 30% draw, 23% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Exeter City 1.33, Cheltenham 0.77.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Has the model earned this number?
Exeter City at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 31J. Doyle-HayesM
- 14H. KiteM
- 20George BirchM
- 12R. ColeM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 19S. CoxF
- 10J. GordonF
- 40E. JamesD
- 18Liam OakesD
- 8T. PerryM
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 32D. RoseF
- 4E. TurnsD
- 23W. StanwayG
- 3J. TomkinsonD
- 25P. SweeneyD
- 6J. WilsonD
- 26J. ShipleyD
- 17S. McWilliamsM
- 7B. StevensonM
- 8C. McCannM
- 14R. BroomF
- 18A. WeimannF
- 9K. OtchereF
- 11J. BickerstaffF
- 5R. CundyD
- 1J. DayG
- 10G. MillerF
- 21G. NurseD
- 20Favour OnukwuliF
- 33F. WillcoxM
Form going into Exeter City vs Cheltenham
Exeter City
League Two
- L1-2away to Salford City31 October 2026
- W2-1Fleetwood Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Crewe20 October 2026
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
Cheltenham
League Two
- L1-3away to Tranmere31 October 2026
- W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
- W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
- L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Exeter City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cheltenham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cheltenham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cheltenham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 | Cheltenham | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Cheltenham
- 22 September 2026Cheltenham 2–2 Exeter CityEFL Trophy
- 13 August 2025Cheltenham 2–0 Exeter CityLeague Cup
- 1 April 2024Cheltenham 1–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 16 September 2023Exeter City 1–0 CheltenhamLeague One
- 18 March 2023Cheltenham 3–1 Exeter CityLeague One
- 20 August 2022Exeter City 0–1 CheltenhamLeague One
Leading scorers: Exeter City and Cheltenham
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Exeter City a 1.3% chance of the title and Cheltenham 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Exeter City a 9.5% chance to finish in the top three: 11.0% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.0%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Exeter City against 0.77 for Cheltenham. Exeter City's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.59 for Cheltenham.
How the model reaches 47% for Exeter City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Exeter City to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Exeter City's ratings add 1 point and Cheltenham's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level38%−3
- Exeter City's ratings39%+1
- Cheltenham's ratings47%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.