Barcelona vs Aston Villa: why the model makes it Barcelona at 52%
Our model leans to Barcelona here, but not by much: 52% (fair odds 1.92) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Barcelona here, but not by much: 52% (fair odds 1.92) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Manchester United host AS Roma in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 24% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.
More →Teams we gave 60% or more won 74.8% of the time, not the 66.6% we said: 2,013 club matches since 8 October. In September the same check found our favourites falling short. That came from the summer model; now the gap runs the other way.
More →SV Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05 finished with SV Elversberg winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 48%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 4–1.
More →Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol finished with Espanyol winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Villarreal at 54%, and rated the actual result at 20%.
More →Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United finished with Chelsea winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 40%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 2–0.
More →Manchester City 0–1 Brighton finished with Brighton winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Manchester City at 45%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →Racing Club 2–1 Aldosivi finished with Racing Club winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–1.
More →Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Rosario Central finished with Rosario Central winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 43%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 1–2.
More →Our model leans to CF Pachuca here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →FC Porto go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 77%, which is fair odds of 1.30. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Estoril 7% to win outright.
More →Our model leans to Velez Sarsfield here, but not by much: 50% (fair odds 2.00) against 31% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Deportivo La Coruna here, but not by much: 51% (fair odds 1.96) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Newcastle here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Sassuolo host Fiorentina in a game our model cannot separate: 35% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.
More →Home sides outscored their visitors in every one of the 51 leagues we measured: they scored 23% more goals. How much more ranges from 45% in Brazil's Serie A to 3% in Qatar. But a single season is a poor guide to which league is which.
More →Our model has a prediction for 402 matches this weekend (31 October - 1 November), across 71 competitions. It is surest about PSV Eindhoven: 91% to beat Willem II, most likely 4-0. 42 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
More →The injury and suspension report covers 106 of the 402 matches on our board this weekend (31 October - 1 November). Across them, 648 players are ruled out and 218 are doubtful. Burnley have the longest list: 11 players out for their match against Portsmouth.
More →Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Atalanta at 42%, and rated the actual result at 26%.
More →Atletico Nacional 2–0 Santa Fe finished with Atletico Nacional winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 54%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–0.
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