Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense: how the model saw it
Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense finished with Gremio winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 38%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–0.
More →Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense finished with Gremio winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 38%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–0.
More →Le Havre 1–5 Paris Saint Germain finished with Paris Saint Germain winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 69%, though it expected 0-2 rather than 1–5.
More →Nice 5–2 Rennes finished with Nice winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 38%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 5–2.
More →Corinthians host Mirassol in a game our model cannot separate: 39% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 32% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Gimnasia La Plata here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Huracan here, but not by much: 40% (fair odds 2.50) against 34% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Athletic Club here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Juventus host Napoli in a game our model cannot separate: 33% for the home side, 30% for the draw and 37% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Arsenal here, but not by much: 44% (fair odds 2.27) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Monza 1–4 Napoli finished with Napoli winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 59%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 1–4.
More →Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo finished with Bahia winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 3–2.
More →Frosinone 5–1 Lecce finished with Frosinone winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 61%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 5–1.
More →Remo 2–1 Botafogo finished with Remo winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 42%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–1.
More →America de Cali go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 61%, which is fair odds of 1.64. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Fortaleza FC 15% to win outright.
More →Our model leans to Flamengo here, but not by much: 48% (fair odds 2.08) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Inter here, but not by much: 48% (fair odds 2.08) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Chelsea host Manchester United in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 23% for the draw and 40% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Manchester City here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 24% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Torino 1–3 Como finished with Como winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 52%, though it expected 0-1 rather than 1–3.
More →AC Milan 2–4 Bologna finished with Bologna winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to AC Milan at 46%, and rated the actual result at 26%.
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