Our model leans to Deportivo Pasto here, but not by much: 48% (fair odds 2.08) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Nacional Asuncion go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 74%, which is fair odds of 1.35. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Club Sp. San Lorenzo 8% to win outright.
More →Our model leans to Juventus here, but not by much: 46% (fair odds 2.17) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Real Sociedad here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 24% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Bournemouth here, but not by much: 47% (fair odds 2.13) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 0-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →23.3% of goals come after the 75th minute, and the last fifteen minutes change 22.9% of results. Late goals turned our wrong calls into right ones 449 times and right into wrong 242 times. Favourites do not finish stronger; the late goal breaks a draw we had never called.
More →Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad finished with Athletic Club winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 2-1, a scoreline it rated at 9%.
More →Cruz Azul 2–1 Leon finished with Cruz Azul winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 2-1, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
More →New England Revolution 1–2 Inter Miami finished with Inter Miami winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-2, a scoreline it rated at 8%.
More →Our model leans to Como here, but not by much: 46% (fair odds 2.17) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to PSV Eindhoven here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 23% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →RB Leipzig host Manchester City in a game our model cannot separate: 35% for the home side, 24% for the draw and 41% for the visitors.
More →Club America 2–2 Toluca finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Club America at 47%, and rated the actual result at 24%.
More →Estudiantes La Plata 3–3 Instituto Cordoba finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Estudiantes La Plata at 37%, and rated the actual result at 29%.
More →Getafe 3–1 Sevilla finished with Getafe winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 35%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 3–1.
More →Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal finished with Arsenal winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 0-1, a scoreline it rated at 11%.
More →Our model leans to Belgrano Cordoba here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 34% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Lanus here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Newell's Old Boys here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Atletico Madrid host Bayern München in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 24% for the draw and 39% for the visitors.
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